Credit Bubble Weekly

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Credit Bubble Weekly • Jul 11 2020
July 10, 2020: Utmost Crazy

The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jul 11, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Jul 04 2020
July 3, 2020: Two Down, Two to Go

“U.S. Stocks Finish Best Quarter in More Than 20 Years” – yet another extraordinary period worthy of documenting in some detail. The S&P500 returned [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jul 4, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Jun 27 2020
June 26, 2020: More W than V

The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jun 27, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Jun 20 2020
June 19, 2020: Update COVID-19

Can we even attempt a reasonable discussion? Someone’s got this wrong. June 12 – Reuters (Judy Hua, Cate Cadell, Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith): “A [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jun 20, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Jun 13 2020
June 12, 2020: Extraordinary Q1 2020 Z.1 Flow of Funds

Financial crisis erupted in March. The Fed slashed rates at a March 3rd emergency meeting – and then began aggressively expanding its holdings/balance sheet [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jun 13, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Jun 06 2020
June 5, 2020: Bubble Meets Pandemic Consequences

For posterity, some numbers: Over the past three weeks (14 sessions), the S&P500 gained 11.5%. The KBW Bank Index surged 36.1%, with the NYSE Financials up [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Jun 6, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • May 30 2020
May 29, 2020: The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement

A global pandemic and historic economic downturn. A rapidly escalating U.S./China cold war. Surging U.S. unemployment and economic depression. A deeply [...]

Doug Noland Posted on May 30, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • May 22 2020
May 22, 2020: Just the Facts

For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 3.2% (down 8.5% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.3% (down 14.3%). The Utilities gained 2.8% (down 12.2%). The Banks jumped 5.9% [...]

Doug Noland Posted on May 22, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • May 16 2020
May 15, 2020: Global Bubbles are Deflating

“Bubble” is commonly understood to describe a divergence between overvalued market prices and underlying asset values. And while price anomalies are a [...]

Doug Noland Posted on May 16, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • May 09 2020
May 8, 2020: Schumpeter’s Business Cycle Analysis

The work of the great economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) has always resonated. When I ponder analytical frameworks pertinent to these extraordinary times, [...]

Doug Noland Posted on May 9, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • May 02 2020
May 1, 2020: Going Nuclear

In a CBB from a decade or so ago, I noted that at the commencement of WWII President Roosevelt marshaled an agreement from the major warring parties to avoid [...]

Doug Noland Posted on May 2, 2020
Credit Bubble Weekly • Apr 24 2020
April 24, 2020: Fault Lines

Now on a weekly basis, we’re witnessing things that couldn’t happen – actually happen. April 20 – Bloomberg (Catherine Ngai, Olivia Raimonde, and [...]

Doug Noland Posted on Apr 24, 2020
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