There’s a saying that’s popular in the Army: I didn’t lie to you; the truth just changed. Regular consumers of the below publications might feel a bit like they’ve been taken too far down the yellow brick road this week, but the Army saying pertains—somewhat, and only apparently. The change relates to only a small (and anticipated) part of the story.
Unfortunately it’s the most visible part of the story—the price of precious metals. They’ve dropped precipitously from their heights at the publication time of two of the three below-summarized communications.
Careful (not casual) readers will acknowledge that the analysts have consistently discussed the likelihood of pullbacks. Even in this week’s Golden Rule Radio, Miles states that silver could drop from its then-current >$110 price to $85. Its price is slightly below the latter at this writing, but the analysis is obviously apt and aware.
What hasn’t changed is the macro environment in which these price changes have occurred. As the only communication of the three to be published after the downturn, Morgan reminds readers of the (much) bigger picture, and advises readers to certainly keep their eye on the ball (prices), but also know who’s on first and what’s on second (the U.S. and global economies and international relations).
There is an innately human tendency to focus on the most apparent and immediate events. However, those events often reflect lesser, countertrending forces beyond the obvious, and can be highly misleading. They ought not to be ignored, but they must be put in perspective. That’s what the below-summarized publications are for.
Key Takeaways:
- Strategy matters more than price
- Keep the big picture in view
- Volatility is normal
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Metals Are Pricey, But Not Overbought
David argues that while precious metals are undeniably expensive, they remain far from overbought, framing gold and silver as barometers rather than momentum trades. In conversation with Kevin, he notes that gold is up roughly 18% and silver more than 50% early in 2026, gains driven less by retail exuberance than by central banks and “strong hands” quietly hedging systemic risk. Much of the discussion centers on gold’s role as insurance amid ballooning global debt, fragile fiat currencies, and what David calls “defiatization,” echoing Ray Dalio’s view that the old monetary order has already ended. They explore rapid price velocity, thin metals markets, and the early stages of broader adoption through ETFs and mining shares. Strategy matters as much as price: David recommends incremental swaps from silver into gold as the gold/silver ratio hits multi‑year lows, emphasizing compounding ounces over chasing tops. The dialogue widens to Japan’s bond turmoil, rising global yields, geopolitical strains from China to trade wars, and the slow awakening of everyday investors. Throughout, metals are cast as defense—quiet, patient, and increasingly relevant as the financial weather turns unsettled.
Hard Asset Insights: Cooler Heads Will Prevail
Morgan opens with a steady hand after a bruising week, arguing that the violent one‑day selloff in precious metals—gold down over 9%, silver nearly 27%, and miners sharply lower—was dramatic but not decisive. In his view, the odds that this marked a secular top are vanishingly small. The core story, he stresses, is a once‑in‑a‑century monetary regime change: a slow but powerful rotation away from the petrodollar system toward gold as a primary global reserve asset. Against that backdrop, heightened volatility is a feature, not a bug, especially as metals had become technically stretched near major round‑number milestones. Morgan addresses the popular narrative blaming the drop on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as a supposedly hawkish Fed chair, dismissing it as a convenient trigger rather than a true cause. With U.S. debt dynamics effectively trapping the Fed into eventual easing, he suggests there’s little room for genuine hawkishness, regardless of who’s in charge. A muted dollar response reinforces that point. Morgan concludes that further weakness would likely represent opportunity, not danger, before briefly surveying the week’s cross‑asset performance—from resilient equities to volatile energy—confident that, once the dust settles, cooler heads will prevail.
Golden Rule Radio: Dollar Weakness Fuels Metals
Rob, Tory, and Miles walk through a powerful week for precious metals, arguing that broad‑based dollar weakness is the primary fuel behind gold’s nearly 12% surge and silver’s eye‑catching 25% jump, with platinum and palladium not far behind. They frame the move less as a speculative blow‑off and more as a currency story: the U.S. dollar continues to slide below psychologically important levels, reinforcing gold’s role as a store of value when purchasing power is being quietly eroded. Much of the discussion centers on how dollar softness is not just a U.S. phenomenon but part of a wider global currency adjustment shaped by heavy debt loads, political pressure on central banks, and an increasingly constrained Federal Reserve. Against that backdrop, they note that volatility is to be expected, especially after such rapid gains, but emphasize that pullbacks don’t negate the broader trend. The hosts also touch on relative performance across assets, contrasting strong metals with mixed equities and shifting rate expectations, and briefly revisit practical themes like disciplined buying and perspective for long‑term holders. The tone is calm but confident: currencies may wobble, narratives may change, but as the hosts suggest, when the dollar weakens, metals tend to remember exactly what they’re there for.
