The many inflationary influences on US and world economies remain in place. In fact, many countries and central banks are doubling down on them. So the race is on to determine whether the new funds are absorbed in constructive enterprise or pumped into ever-expanding bubbles. The likelihood, of course, is both.
That’ll keep us guessing as to which side will win. The analysts summarized below carefully consider the data and the work of other analysts, and give their studied conclusions. If that sounds like everyone else out there, it’s not—for at least two reasons. First, the below analysts have been doing this work for decades, through bull markets and bear. They don’t just study history, they’ve lived it—and learned it.
Second, the solutions they discuss are not tailored for one outcome only. They are useful for anything that will happen. So if your crystal ball is cracked or clouded, you might want to read or listen to the publications summarized below. Whatever happens, you will be well informed and prepared.
Key Takeaways:
- Is silver getting too expensive?
- The Fed courts disaster
- QE by any other name is still inflationary
- Bull market portfolios must still be handled wisely
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Is Silver Too Expensive?
Kevin and David open by tackling the listener question of the moment: is silver too expensive? David argues it’s pricey compared to last year’s levels but hardly “too expensive,” noting that silver hasn’t yet undergone the generational repricing seen in other commodities, and still looks cheap relative to gold with the ratio stuck near 70:1. From there, the conversation widens into a tour of current market crosswinds: gold’s continued under‑ownership, the likelihood of retail “army ants” boosting silver in coming years, and why selling gold to chase silver—or equities or real estate—makes little sense unless one has a concrete need, such as tuition or cattle. Kevin and David also explore Dow/gold ratio scenarios, the global migration of gold trading toward Asia, and the growing shift from dollar recycling to gold recycling. Broader macro risks loom large: China’s record trade surplus and reduced reliance on U.S. consumers, the implications for demand for dollars and Treasuries, and the rising likelihood of U.S. yield‑curve control by 2026–27. They close by contrasting gold and silver performance across inflationary and deflationary regimes and inviting more listener questions for upcoming Q&A episodes.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: It’s Back
Doug opens with a clear warning: QE is back. In his view, the return of large‑scale Fed liquidity—$40 billion in monthly T‑bill purchases—is less a benign “reserve management exercise” than a sign of deep fragility created by years of speculative leverage. He traces rising global yields, record‑high gold and silver, and cracks in the AI mania to a financial system stretched thin by hedge‑fund basis trades, repo‑dependent speculation, and corporate borrowing binges—Oracle included—now wobbling under the weight of AI‑related capex. Doug argues that the Fed’s refusal to confront dangerously loose financial conditions amounts to a dereliction of duty, especially with inflation still persistent and labor markets firm. He then widens the lens to the political backdrop: aggressive deregulation, Trump’s growing pressure on the Fed, and market‑rattling comments about interest‑rate cuts. Add in bond‑market anxiety, crowded trades across quant funds, soaring private‑credit risks, and geopolitical tensions from Europe to Asia, and Doug paints a picture of a system where the walls feel as though they’re inching inward—slowly, but unmistakably.
Hard Asset Insights: Potomac Two-Step
Morgan opens with the central theme he’s hammered all year: the Trump administration’s second term is fully committed to “running the economy hot,” inflating debt away, and reindustrializing the U.S.—a strategy he argues necessarily weakens the dollar and dismantles the post‑1971 dollar‑based global order. Using the newly released National Security Strategy as Exhibit A, Morgan notes its blunt admission that America’s current‑account deficit is “unsustainable,” a statement he reads as an intentional pivot toward a world in which gold—not the dollar or Treasuries—again becomes the neutral reserve asset for settling global trade. From there, he details why ending dollar recycling implies massive future money‑printing, yield‑curve control, and structurally higher inflation. Morgan then turns to the week’s Fed meeting, calling Powell’s latest rate cut and $40 billion in renewed T‑bill purchases what they look, sound, and act like—QE in all but name. He quotes Jim Bianco to drive home the emerging reality: policymakers say inflation worries them, but have no intention of raising rates. Despite public frictions, Morgan sees a synchronized “Potomac two‑step” between the Fed and the White House, all pointing to a weak‑dollar regime favoring gold, silver, hard assets, and real resources.
Golden Rule Radio: BRICS Fuels Metals Boom
On this week’s episode, Rob and Miles dig first into silver’s explosive breakout, with Miles highlighting the metal’s surge to roughly $61.80 and noting that its blistering performance has finally put it in the driver’s seat of the 2025 metals bull market. Rob then connects the move to the broader macro backdrop: repeated Fed rate cuts pushing the dollar back below 100, tightening supply conditions, and, most notably, accelerating de‑dollarization as the BRICS countries stockpile precious metals and build gold‑ and yuan‑linked settlement systems. Rob also describes how China is introducing counterparty risk into its gold holdings by storing some of them abroad. From there, the hosts walk through the technicals—gold grinding higher within a sideways channel, silver breaking out of a “cup‑and‑handle” formation, and platinum and palladium tagging along with modest gains. The hosts round things out with strategy: keeping physical metals unencumbered, using the fast‑shrinking gold‑silver ratio to compound ounces through swaps, and avoiding the temptation to overthink short‑term volatility in what they see as a structurally powerful, globally driven metals uptrend.
