Precious metals prices have recently shown investors some potentially alarming moves. Are those moves early signs of a new valley in metals prices, or are they just draws one must traverse on the way to the far distant and much higher summit?
No human knows for certain, but there are major forces at work that not only can be identified, but are identified in the publications summarized below. You can bet against such forces, but that’s not usually the best way to go.
Key Takeaways:
- Tech is touchy
- Gold is money
- BRICS increasingly opt for gold bricks
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Market Narrative For AI Is Changing
In conversation with Kevin, David argues that the market narrative around AI is beginning to crack, much like crypto’s did before it. Despite strong earnings, major tech firms are unsettling investors with staggering 2026 capital expenditure plans—roughly $650 billion collectively, with Google and Amazon far outspending expectations—raising doubts about returns on AI investment. Meanwhile, crypto has lost momentum, with bitcoin down sharply from prior highs and leveraged players feeling the strain. David notes that while volatility has surged across tech, private equity, and leveraged credit, corporate credit markets have not yet flashed systemic stress. He sees a broader rotation underway from speculative growth into more traditional sectors, against a backdrop of widening yield spreads and concerns about persistent inflation. Large firms like Blackstone and PIMCO are positioning for higher rates, even as political pressure builds around Fed policy and ballooning federal debt. In contrast to the fading AI and crypto narratives, gold remains resilient, miners are generating record free cash flow, and David frames 2026 as potentially transformative amid what he views as a rare monetary regime shift.
Hard Asset Insights: Times Are Changing
Morgan argues that Japan’s recent bond market turmoil may be the canary in the coal mine for the United States, warning that a spike in Japanese yields and forward inflation expectations signals a “de facto debt crisis” that could foreshadow America’s own fiscal reckoning. He contends that if structural buyers of U.S. Treasuries continue to fade—most notably China, whose holdings have fallen roughly 50% since their 2011–2013 peak—the likely policy response will be to run the economy hot, suppress yields, and inflate away the debt, sacrificing bondholders and dollar purchasing power in the process. Morgan sees accelerating de-dollarization trends, particularly among China and BRICS nations building alternative, gold-linked trade networks, as evidence that the petrodollar era is waning. He dismisses reports of a potential Russian return to the dollar system as misdirection, arguing that broader geopolitical currents favor a shift toward a more neutral, possibly gold-anchored reserve framework. Echoing J.P. Morgan’s maxim that “gold is money,” Morgan maintains that despite short-term volatility, the secular bull market in precious metals remains intact as monetary tides continue to turn.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold Has Done Something Silver Hasn’t…
The Golden Rule Radio team walks listeners through one of the wildest openings to a year in metals history, with gold and silver taking dramatically different paths. As of February 11, gold has climbed back toward the top of its range near $5,086, up 4% on the week, while silver, at $84.30, is rebounding from a breathtaking plunge after running from the high $40s to over $121 before margin hikes and policy moves—particularly in China—triggered a forced liquidation. The hosts emphasize that silver’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and collapse in speculative positioning reflect a shakeout of hot money rather than weakening physical demand. They highlight a stark East‑West divide: tight inventories and backwardation in China versus ample supply and contango in the U.S. Gold, by contrast, has held firm, supported by strong Commitment of Traders positioning and central bank demand. The conversation broadens to a generational monetary shift, with BRICS nations building gold-backed trade architecture and experimenting with tokenized settlement systems. The takeaway: treat gold as the portfolio anchor and silver as tactical torque in an increasingly fragmented, post‑petrodollar world.
