With all the Sturm und Drang over the Iran war, NATO, foreign policy, and other international and national events, it’s easy to either get lost in the storm or let it get to you. Truly, these are eventful times.
However, as important as your views of events are, and as much as they will inevitably affect your actions, make sure you view as big a picture as possible—particularly as it pertains to gold. Gold is stable, which means it is certain. That’s why it does so well in uncertain times. And what are we in, if not uncertain times?
Don’t miss this week’s analysis by the McAlvany analysts. They delve into finance, economics, politics, and geopolitics much deeper than most people have the opportunity or inclination to do. They go to considerable lengths to make sure you benefit from their efforts at no cost to you, so do yourself a favor and take advantage of their offerings.
Key Takeaways:
- The case for safe havens
- Whoever is in the details, they matter
- Follow the (real) money
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Super Bubble Stock Market: Fire Storm Dynamics
David and Kevin set the tone by warning that today’s stock market looks less like a normal bull and more like a “super bubble”—a three-sigma stretch where history says markets this expensive are rare (occurring less than 1% of the time). David frames it through valuation as signposts rather than timing tools, arguing that high price momentum is powered by profit strength that investors may be extrapolating too far, too fast—especially with energy and geopolitical pressures (including Hormuz/related shocks) likely rippling more clearly into Q2 and Q3. The hosts also explore how liquidity can create its own “weather,” with self-reinforcing dynamics in both directions, and how leverage intensifies the stakes: margin debt, leveraged ETFs, and hedge fund borrowing combine into a potentially dangerous mix, raising correlation risks across assets. They highlight narrowing breadth and concentration—AI, semiconductors, IT hardware, and energy dominating profit upgrades—and discuss why gold and safe havens may become increasingly “most needed” if confidence breaks, potentially making Treasuries a lesser safe haven.
Hard Asset Insights: The Return of History
Morgan opens by noting that, two months into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—still throttling roughly 20% of world oil and gas supplies—and that negotiations appear stuck even as the U.S. reportedly weighs fresh strikes. From there, he argues that markets have not yet priced the “full impact” of dwindling buffers, with the risk rising daily, and he frames the conflict as an “economic battlefield” where Treasury actions—like freezing Iranian assets—could further accelerate dedollarization and official-sector interest in gold. He pushes back on the idea that the Iran war is bearish for gold, pointing instead to Bloomberg and World Gold Council data showing central banks buying on dips, even amid some institution-specific selling. He then broadens into a “return of history” thesis: weaponized dollar dynamics, shifting geopolitical power, and gold’s role as a generational beneficiary, with a Deutsche Bank view of upside potential of $8,000 mentioned (with a caveat on its timing). As always, he closes with a brisk weekly performance snapshot across equities, metals, miners, energy, the dollar, and Treasury yields.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold Tests Support as Silver Corrects
Tory, Miles, and Rob—speaking in a “don’t panic, but do pay attention” tone—argue that gold and silver’s recent pullback shouldn’t be mistaken for arrested development of the bull market. They note prices as of Wednesday, April 29: gold down 3.3% to about $4,545 and silver down 6.2% to about $71.30, with platinum and palladium also weaker, while the S&P 500 and a slightly firmer dollar helped make the slide seem louder than it really was. Their big theme is that the long-term forces behind precious metals remain in place: gold’s growing role in global reserves (about 30% versus ~10% in 2000) signals an ongoing monetary reallocation, while silver’s structural deficit is worsening—COMEX/LBMA inventories have fallen sharply and demand (especially from China) continues to outpace mine supply. They add a technical “floor hunt,” using Fibonacci retracement levels to frame support zones for both metals, suggesting weakness is more algorithmic than fundamental. They close by reminding investors that strategy beats emotion—ratio trading into gold, planned exits, and a nod to Fed stability and upcoming leadership uncertainty.
