Week after week, the McAlvany analysts chronicle developments in markets far and wide. Many of these events are unique in nature and timing, yet they can seem repetitive because they collectively support a singular major worldwide phenomenon: the world’s economy is fundamentally changing. Globalism and the dollar are losing some of their steam. Nationalism and the BRICS countries are taking a bigger role. Central banks are acting like dubbed dialog in a foreign movie—inaccurate and out of sync. And the world’s debt-based monetary and speculative investment bubble is showing signs of troubling instability.
No one knows how far this change will go, but three things are critical to understand: 1) it’s truly happening, 2) it shows signs of being huge in size and potentially catastrophic in effect, but 3) most US investors are not reacting to it commensurate with its scope and significance.
President Trump has thrown his lasso around the neck of King Kong (the world economy). Whether he holds on to the rope or loses it, things could get crazy from here. Don’t let the crazy wipe out what you’ve worked so hard for. Stabilize your savings and/or your portfolio with the asset that is tailor-made for times like these.
Key Takeaways:
- The predictive power of momentum
- The widespread indicators of market stress
- Silver shines
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Michael Oliver: The Most Important Chart in Markets Is Breaking Right Now
David sits down with technical analyst Michael Oliver for a wide‑ranging conversation centered on what Michael calls the most important chart in global markets today: the long‑term gold‑versus‑S&P‑500 spread, which he argues has now broken decisively and signals a years‑long shift from paper assets toward monetary metals. From there, the duo dives into silver’s poised‑to‑“whoosh” momentum structure, the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s emerging second‑wave breakout, and the increasingly fragile setup in long‑term Treasuries, where a slip toward key levels could unleash a confidence‑shaking downdraft. They touch on bitcoin’s structural breakdown, tech’s narrowing leadership, and the vulnerabilities lurking in financials and commercial real estate, all of which reinforce Michael’s view that a generational reallocation toward tangible assets is underway. Throughout, Michael highlights why momentum often indicates turning points long before price admits them, making these spread breakouts “table‑pounders” for investors.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: Everywhere
Doug charts a week in which markets behaved as if doused in rocket fuel and panic at the same time, with massive short squeezes, tech and semiconductor surges, and yet unmistakable signs of destabilizing liquidity everywhere. He highlights how hyper‑leveraged speculative structures—especially in crypto, AI/tech, and the sprawling ETF complex—have begun to unwind, triggering violent deleveraging even as “risk‑on” bursts paradoxically worsen systemic fragility. Crypto’s sharp slump, hedge‑fund basis‑trade vulnerability, and money‑market fund balances hitting new records all point, in Doug’s telling, to a global financial system stretched like a drumhead. He weaves in the BIS’s warnings on NBFI leverage, Treasury market snapback risk, and repo/FX‑swap linkages, underscoring how sovereign‑debt stress could spread in nonlinear ways. Meanwhile, precious metals soar, bond yields dip on rising expectations of Fed cuts, and volatility collapses in a way that seems more dysfunctional than comforting. Around the edges, Doug nods to geopolitical strains, big‑tech credit concerns, private‑credit stress, and global macro tremors—from Japan to China to the U.S. fiscal picture—painting a picture of instability that is, as he puts it, everywhere.
Hard Asset Insights: Happy Thanksgiving!
Morgan opens with warm Thanksgiving wishes before turning to what he sees as the week’s real headline: silver’s explosive surge to new all‑time highs and its emerging role as the pace‑setter for the entire precious‑metals complex. He notes that silver’s breakout appears to be telegraphing the path gold and mining shares are likely to follow, suggesting that the sector may be heading into a notably “exciting” stretch despite the usual short‑term volatility. Morgan punctuates the holiday spirit with a brief Robert Herrick verse on gratitude before pivoting to a rapid tour of weekly market performance: strong gains in gold, platinum, and palladium; a double‑digit leap in the HUI miners; solid showings from infrastructure, real estate, utilities, and energy commodities; respectable moves in copper; mild weakness in the dollar; and a small dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield. His tone blends cheer with a subtle message—this was a holiday week worth savoring not only at the dinner table but across precious‑metals portfolios.
The GRR team takes a break this week for the holiday, returning next week for more news and analysis of the precious metals markets.
