Not All That Glitters is Gold in 2026
Happy New Year, all! This author is still hanging on to the last of family vacation time, so HAI will again be brief this week. In HAI‘s view, gold, silver, and the precious metals miners remain central to great expectations heading into 2026.
What a difference a year makes. A year ago, precious metals were still dismissed and widely overlooked. At the start of 2026, however, even some mainstream banks sound like HAI—on a lag.
In a note revealing their year-end 2026 target of $5,000/oz gold, Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hanson wrote this week that 2025 strength in gold was a consequence of the fact that, “Central banks were buying gold not for tactical or speculative reasons, but for strategic ones: to reduce exposure to the US dollar, diversify reserves, and in some cases move towards gold as a partial replacement for dollar assets.”
Ole Hanson continued, “Gold’s performance over the past two years reflects more than just a favorable macro cycle. It signals a deeper transition in the global financial system, where trust, diversification, and resilience have become as important as yield and growth. As we head into 2026, gold is no longer just a hedge against inflation or falling rates—it is increasingly a cornerstone asset in a world defined by fragmentation, fiscal strain, and geopolitical uncertainty.”
Again, that sort of mainstream commentary just wasn’t available this time last year. But while the narrative is just starting to catch up, there is still no mention of either China’s progress in internationalizing a gold-based yuan or the U.S’s battle against Triffin’s dilemma that necessitates a monetary regime change to effectively bring back gold as a primary reserve asset.
That lag in the mainstream narrative bodes well for gold and precious metals in 2026, and it bodes well for Ole’s $5,000/oz price target. In fact, HAI expects gold will handily outperform Saxo’s 2026 expectations.
Now, bullish expectations for gold typically also translate to enthusiasm over the outlook for silver, and 2026 is no exception to that rule. In fact, in 2026, HAI expects that not all that glitters will be gold. While the silver price has already started to surge in 2025, significant outperformance potential remains strong for the white metal in 2026.
This past Thanksgiving, silver’s relative performance broke out against gold. During the two past instances in which a similar breakout occurred (1979–1980 and 2010–2011), silver proceeded to at least double in price. A threepeat of that historical precedent this time would launch silver to at least $100/oz—likely in 2026.
This time, however, in addition to silver’s bullish monetary metal relationship to gold (as “poor man’s gold”), there is a rapidly developing industrial demand story that adds massive thrust to silver’s trajectory. The most recent chapter in this industrial renascence of silver is the Samsung silver solid-state battery.
According to a recent discoveryalert.com article, Samsung’s solid-state battery technology is a “breakthrough innovation” that “marks a paradigm shift from conventional lithium-ion systems.”
The first production vehicles featuring this technology are slated for late 2026, targeting premium segments before trickling down to mass-market models by 2030.
This silver-based technology is first slated to upend the EV battery market.
“The 600-mile range eliminates daily charging needs for most drivers, while fast-charging times approximate gasoline refueling convenience. Over a 20-year period, the total cost of ownership becomes competitive with internal combustion engines, even with higher upfront costs. Safety enhancements are equally impactful: the solid electrolyte’s flash point exceeds 500°C, compared to 150°C for liquid alternatives, virtually eliminating fire risks.”
“Compared to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, Samsung’s technology offers 3× the energy density and 50% faster charging. Even next-generation sodium-ion alternatives trail by 40% in cycle life.”
And the story on cost is positive as well. According to discoveryalert.com, “While silver adds $1,071 per vehicle at current prices, the 20-year lifespan distributes this cost at $53.55 annually—far below the $200/year average for lithium-ion replacements.”
But the potential of this silver-technology extends well beyond EVs.
“Aerospace applications stand to gain significantly—the battery’s 500 Wh/kg [watt-hours per kilogram] density enables electric aircraft with 500-mile ranges. In consumer electronics, smartphone prototypes demonstrate 48-hour battery life with five-minute charging.”
The real kicker, however, is that “global silver production stands at 25,660 metric tons annually. If 20% of the 16 million EVs produced yearly adopted this technology, silver demand would increase by 16,000 metric tons—representing 62% of current [annual mine] supply. According to a recent analysis by Samsung SDI, their solid-state batteries could potentially achieve the highest energy density in the industry.”
Discoveryalert.com continues, “At full adoption (80% market share), EV batteries alone would consume 64,000 metric tons of silver annually—2.5 times current global production. This excludes potential demand from consumer electronics and grid storage applications.”
The silver market has already been in a structural supply/demand deficit for five years, with no inventory buffer left. Further complicating matters, the silver supply response is quite inelastic to higher silver prices because 70% of silver supply is a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining. That means the commodity price signal for increased production is extremely muted for silver. It takes large price increases in other metals (not silver) to increase silver production for the 70% of the byproduct silver produced. In addition, demand is unusually sticky for silver given that silver has the highest electrical conductivity of any element, making it irreplaceable for many high-efficiency electronics that depend upon the metal.
In short, silver’s monetary metal relationship to gold remains intact, but in 2026 it looks like the poor man’s gold will finally stand on its own merits. Expect volatile corrections, but, in HAI‘s view, market participants should also expect silver’s relative outperformance over gold to continue as silver takes the elevator to a new, well earned, much higher price range compared to its prior 50-year range.
In HAI‘s view, 2026 is set to glitter for both gold and silver. The stars appear to be aligned for a very bullish 2026 for the precious metals and their miners. HAI will keep a close eye on that progression every step of the way.
Weekly performance: The S&P 500 was off 1.03%. Gold was off 4.42%, silver dropped by 8.67%, platinum was smashed by 13.18%, and palladium was crushed by 16.02%. The HUI gold miners index was off 6.24%. The IFRA iShares US Infrastructure ETF gained 0.09%. Energy commodities were volatile and mixed on the week. WTI crude oil was up 1.02%, while natural gas was off 6.07%. The CRB Commodity Index was off 0.87%. Copper was down 2.07%. The Dow Jones US Specialty Real Estate Investment Trust Index was down 0.36%. The Vanguard Utilities ETF was up 0.92%. The dollar index was up 0.42% to close the week at 98.43. The yield on the 10-yr U.S. Treasury was up 6 bps to close the week at 4.20%.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Morgan Lewis
Investment Strategist & Co-Portfolio Manager
MWM LLC
