The content creators whose work is summarized below continue to give context to both financial markets (with emphasis on precious metals) and international relations. The two are integrally connected—particularly with the ongoing change from globalism to “civilization states” that are essentially arising to fill the void left by the decline of British-American hegemony. Historic civilizations in such major power centers as China, India, Russia, Europe, the US, etc. become their own centers of influence, and vy with each other for power, resources, and influence.
Such major global changes are rare, perhaps once in a century, and they bring massive alterations in how things are done. Wise people will pay close attention, understand both markets and the times, and emphasize considered action over emotion or impulse. The publications discussed below will help with these disciplines.
Key Takeaways:
- De-dollarization remains the dominant theme
- America’s dearth of rare earth minerals remains critical
- Metals resting before renewed action?
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Next Move Up in Gold Will Be Motivated by Fear
David and Kevin focus their discussion on mounting fragility in the U.S. Treasury market, arguing that America’s debt trajectory—spending roughly $1.33 for every $1 collected—has moved from theoretical concern to unfolding reality. They warn that with deficits near $1.85 trillion and interest consuming over 20% of tax receipts, the system depends precariously on continued demand for Treasuries. China has reduced holdings sharply, Japan may repatriate capital as its yields rise, and—most strikingly—the Cayman Islands (a proxy for leveraged hedge funds) now hold more Treasuries than China or Japan, largely to fuel highly leveraged basis and swap spread trades. If volatility spikes or the yen strengthens, these trades could unwind, flooding the market with supply and pushing yields higher. Against this backdrop of de-dollarization, stretched equity valuations, and a fading AI narrative, David suggests the traditional 60/40 portfolio is obsolete, favoring short-term Treasuries and a strategic allocation to gold. The next leg up in precious metals, he contends, won’t be driven by greed but by fear—when counterparty risk rises and investors seek assets outside the financial system.
Hard Asset Insights: A Slug Out of the Middle
Morgan argues that despite upbeat reshoring rhetoric, the latest USGS data show the U.S. remains deeply dependent on foreign—especially Chinese—critical minerals, with 100% import reliance on 16 commodities and majority reliance on dozens more. He emphasizes that rebuilding domestic supply chains, particularly for defense, is both a national security imperative and an inflationary process the country has barely begun. Proposed price floors for critical minerals may spark private investment, but Morgan suggests true reindustrialization will require outright commodity price inflation. He expects policymakers to “run the economy hot,” pairing inflation with yield curve control or similar financial repression to manage soaring deficits—an approach likely to weaken the U.S. dollar structurally. A softer dollar, he contends, is essential if the U.S. hopes to compete with China’s industrial dominance, a point reinforced by recent IMF warnings. The Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs may accelerate a pivot toward this “Plan B” of currency weakening. Taken together—reshoring pressures, inflation, financial repression, and dollar decline—Morgan sees a powerful tailwind for precious metals. Recent pullbacks, he suggests, are mere corrections in a durable bull market, with “a nice fat slug out of the middle” still ahead for gold investors.
Golden Rule Radio: Metals Catch Their Breath
The team at McAlvany Precious Metals walks listeners through a well‑earned pause in the metals rally, with gold off about 1.7% near $4,985 and silver down roughly 8% to $77, emphasizing that this “rest phase” is healthy rather than ominous. They spend much of the discussion on silver’s extreme volatility, outlining its wide $67–$90 trading range and explaining how Chinese demand, Lunar New Year slowdowns, speculative crackdowns, and CME margin changes amplified recent swings—even triggering a dramatic yuan‑priced drop before stabilization. Geopolitics, particularly rising U.S.–Iran tensions and firm crude prices, underpin gold’s resilience and the case for a multi‑month consolidation that builds a durable base rather than a blow‑off top. The hosts tie the bigger picture to chronic U.S. deficits, expanding debt, softening Treasury demand, and the likelihood of continued currency debasement, reinforcing gold’s role as portfolio “insurance” and a core allocation alongside growth assets and cash. Meanwhile, cracks in AI‑driven equities and rolling crypto momentum hint at rotation and topping behavior. Their bottom line: use volatility to accumulate ounces, watch the gold‑silver ratio, and stay focused on long‑term wealth preservation over headline chasing.
