Podcast: Play in new window
Another quiet week for precious metals, with gold and silver rising just over 1%. Platinum and palladium took a small step back reflecting some weakness across the industrial metals. Equities continued their strong upwards movement, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high and the dollar creeping up to 99.5. Despite June historically being one of gold’s weakest months, long-term fundamentals push for continued demand of physical gold.
Let’s take a look at where precious metals stand as of Wednesday, June 3
The price of gold is up about 1.5% on the week, sitting near $4,440.
Silver is holding just under $73.
Platinum is down, slipping below $1,900
Palladium is down, now trading around $1,306.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high above 7,500.
The US Dollar Index is essentially flat near 99.5.
On the surface, it’s a quiet week. But beneath the calm, several important forces are shaping what comes next for precious metals investors. Here’s what you need to know.
Buying Opportunity in June
If you’ve been waiting for a better entry point into gold or silver, history says you may already be in it.
Over the past 50 years, June is one of only two months that has consistently posted a negative average return for gold (the other is March). Looking at the last five years specifically, gold has averaged roughly a 1% decline in June. Last year, it opened and closed the month at nearly the same price — essentially flat.
This isn’t a reason to panic. It’s a reason to prepare.
Every major seasonal low in gold tends to cluster around this time of year before the market typically regains momentum heading into fall. If you’ve been meaning to add to your position or start one, that historical seasonal window is right now.
Gold Loses Momentum at Technical Level
From a charting perspective, gold is compressing against a significant floor in the mid-$4,300s to mid-$4,400s range. This zone aligns with multiple technical signals at once: a prior October 2025 high, the short-term 50% Fibonacci retracement, and the 200-day moving average — all stacking up at the same level.
What’s notable is the pattern of the bounces. Each time gold has touched this support zone, it has rebounded — but each rebound has been weaker than the last. Think of it like a Super Ball dropped from height: the first bounce is big, but each subsequent bounce loses a little more energy.
Gold hit this floor after the sharp January selloff and snapped back. It returned again in March and held, but didn’t rally as forcefully. Now it’s back at the same level again, trading sideways with less and less momentum to show for it.
In a seasonally weak month, with real yields still positive and geopolitical dynamics creating unusual market behavior, the odds of a sustained breakout higher in June are low. The more likely near-term scenario is continued sideways-to-soft price action — which, again, is exactly the kind of environment that historically rewards patient buyers.
Western Investors Abandon Gold
Here’s a data point that should stop you in your tracks: open interest in gold on US exchanges is now at a 13-year low — lower than it was at the very bottom of the 2015 gold bear market, when gold was trading just over $1,000 per ounce.
American investors have largely walked away from precious metals in favor of AI and semiconductor stocks, which have surged over 80%. The Western mindset — go big or go home — is fully committed to the equity trade right now.
But here’s what’s happening on the other side of that equation: central banks now hold 36,000 tons of gold, making it the largest reserve asset in the world — surpassing US Treasuries for the first time since the Bretton Woods era. Eastern nations are not only accumulating gold at a historic pace, they are formally classifying it as a high-quality liquid asset, meaning they can use it as collateral rather than ever being forced to sell it.
The West is ignoring gold. The rest of the world is hoarding it. That kind of divergence doesn’t last forever — and when it closes, it tends to close fast.
Real Yield Headwind Is Temporary
Gold’s current softness isn’t a mystery. There’s a straightforward fundamental explanation: real yields are positive.
Real yield is simply the nominal yield on a bond minus the inflation rate. The 10-year Treasury is currently yielding around 4.5%, while inflation is running near 3.8%. That leaves a real yield of roughly +0.7%. Gold historically underperforms when investors can earn a positive real return sitting in cash or bonds — the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold goes up.
But this dynamic has a shelf life. Oil prices have surged roughly 50% above their historical mean, and energy is the great inflation multiplier — it raises the cost of food, transport, manufacturing, and nearly everything else. If inflation re-accelerates from here while the Fed moves toward rate cuts to stimulate a slowing economy, real yields turn negative again.
That’s the setup that has launched every major gold bull market in modern history — the 1970s, the 2000s, and the post-COVID era. When real rates plunge, gold surges. We’re not there yet, but the ingredients are assembling.
Shanghai Premiums Hint at Silver Scarcity
Silver has been trading at an 11% premium in Shanghai compared to New York prices — and that gap has persisted for roughly six months.
In a normal, functioning market, this kind of arbitrage opportunity disappears within days. Traders move metal from where it’s cheap to where it’s expensive, and the gap closes. The fact that this premium has lasted for half a year means something structural is preventing that from happening. Either physical silver cannot easily move from West to East, or it’s already moving — meaning silver is quietly draining from Western markets to Asian ones.
COMEX inventories look adequate by current measures, but the sustained Shanghai premium suggests the real tightness may be further along than the headline numbers imply. When that kind of regional scarcity eventually breaks into the broader market, it tends to move prices sharply and without much warning.
For silver investors, this is a background signal worth watching closely.
Your Next Move
June is historically weak, gold is testing support, Western investors are distracted, and real yields are providing a near-term headwind. None of that changes the underlying bull market case — it just means the short-term setup favors accumulation over chasing.
Our recommendation:
Buy consistently, not reactively. Dollar-cost averaging into physical metals treats the process like disciplined savings rather than speculation, which keeps emotion out of the equation.
Watch the real yield picture. When inflation re-accelerates and the Fed cuts, the case for gold strengthens dramatically. The time to be positioned is before that happens, not after.
Pay attention to the gold-silver ratio. With gold around $4,440 and silver near $73, the ratio sits near 61:1. As the cycle progresses, ratio trades between the two metals can compound your ounces meaningfully — especially inside an IRA where there’s no immediate tax drag.
Don’t mistake Western apathy for a verdict. Central banks aren’t wrong. The East isn’t wrong. The fact that US open interest is at a 13-year low while the rest of the world accumulates is one of the most compelling contrarian signals in the market right now.
Here to Help
Wondering what your next move in precious metals should be? The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years of experience in the precious metals market. Reach out for a no-obligation, complimentary consultation at 800-525-9556.
