Podcast: Play in new window
A volatile week in precious metals ended with everything pointing higher, though not without a late-day reversal courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Gold climbed nearly 4.5%, silver surged over 5%, and even equities pushed into positive territory before the FOMC announcement brought a sharp afternoon selloff across the board.
Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, June 17:
The price of gold is up 4.25%, hitting us at $4,250. Gold was up as much as about 7.5% prior to the FOMC meeting, and that’s going to be a running theme as we go through the charts this week. 
The price of silver is up 5.5%, currently at $67.50. Silver was up as much as 12.5% this week prior to the FOMC.
Platinum is up 7.5%, currently sitting at $1,730. Same story — higher a few hours ago.
Palladium is up about 5.5% since our recording last week sitting just under $1,300.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 is up 1.8% to 7,420. But interestingly, the index started to slip a couple of days prior to the FOMC meeting.
And finally, the US dollar index is up 0.5%. The difference is the dollar was actually on a downward slide all week until just after the FOMC meeting.
Markets React to The Fed’s New Era
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his first FOMC press conference this week, and the results were both expected and surprising. As anticipated, rates were held steady at 3.5–3.75% — a unanimous vote. But the tone going forward matters just as much as today’s decision.
The dot plot — the Fed’s tool for telegraphing where rates are headed — appears to be on its way out. Warsh isn’t a fan of that kind of forward guidance, which means markets will have less visibility into the Fed’s thinking going forward. He also established five new internal task forces to oversee key operational areas of the central bank.
What really moved markets was the message buried in the dot plot before it goes away: nine of the eighteen Fed members believe a rate hike may still be needed in 2026. The other nine expect rates to hold or fall. That split vote sent Treasury yields spiking, the dollar jumping, and gold and silver off their intraday highs in a matter of hours. The S&P erased roughly $1.2 trillion in value in under two hours.
Warning Sign: Treasury Yields Rise
One of the more important signals this week came not from the metals but from the bond market. The yield on the five-year Treasury is now sitting around 4.25%, even though the Fed funds rate is at 3.75%. That spread — yields above the policy rate — historically appears when markets anticipate rising rates ahead, or when demand for Treasury debt is softening.
In other words, the market may be telling us something the Fed isn’t: that buyers of U.S. debt are becoming more selective, and that the government may have to offer more to attract them. More supply, weaker demand, and a structurally expanding deficit is not a recipe for dollar strength over the long run — even if this week’s Fed announcement gave the dollar a short-term bounce.
This dynamic has been one of the core structural drivers behind gold’s rise from its 2015 lows, and it hasn’t gone away.
Flight to Safety in Gold
Capital used to reflexively pour into US Treasuries amid stress in financial markets. That reflex appears to be weakening. The World Gold Council recently reported that 45% of central banks plan to add gold to reserves over the next 12 months — the highest reading on record.
Meanwhile, central bank gold holdings have exceeded 20% of total foreign exchange reserves globally, while U.S. retail investors hold just 1.4% of their portfolios in precious metals. That gap is the opportunity. When the general public eventually catches up to what central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and informed institutional buyers have been doing for years, the demand picture changes dramatically.
Right now, that public stampede hasn’t happened yet. We are still in what might be called the “end of the beginning” of this bull market, not the end.
Buy-the-Dip Mentality Is Back
With gold having pulled back from January highs and silver still sitting well below its $121 peak, the question on every metals investor’s mind is: is this a buying opportunity or a warning sign?
The evidence continues to favor the former. We have been fielding calls from clients who sat tight through the January–February volatility and are now stepping back in — not chasing headlines, but treating price dips as inventory opportunities. Silver at $67 is still up roughly 100% from a year ago. Gold near $4,250 is still tracking one of the strongest multi-year bull markets in the metal’s history.
The strategy that has worked — and continues to work — is the same one we’ve outlined for months: think in ounces, not dollars; use the gold-silver ratio to guide swaps; prioritize IRA accounts for tax-efficient ratio trades; and treat sharp corrections as chances to upgrade or add to positions rather than reasons to panic.
The Iran situation, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, mounting private-sector credit stress, and a Fed that can’t get ahead of a 2% inflation target in a world of $39 trillion in federal debt all point in the same direction. The short-term volatility just keeps creating new entry points for those paying attention.
Make Your Move
Ready to talk through your next move? The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years of experience advising on precious metals portfolios. Reach out to our team for a no-obligation, complimentary consultation at 800-525-9556.
