Gold continues to try the patience of investors—not because it has changed, but because so much else has, and investment parallax makes it seem that gold is the thing changing value.
If you’ve been in the metals space for long, you know that this is how it goes. Gold advances through fits and starts for a while, then retraces its steps, then goes up again. In short, it acts a lot like any other investment because it’s no longer considered money by most people. It’s an asset, but its relation to fiat currencies is not pegged, so it floats—often wildly.
Quite crucially, however, gold does not depreciate—at all. Zero. Its dollar value might go down, but that’s a function of market dynamics (which reflect supply and demand), not value. If it goes down, it will go up again because its intrinsic value remains unchanged and different circumstances will sooner or later reveal that fact.
The gold value (not collector or historical value) of a gold coin from Solomon’s treasury would be just as high today as a modern gold coin of identical weight. There would be absolutely zero depreciation in the asset in nearly three thousand years.
The value of such an asset in a portfolio as insurance cannot be overstated. Many investors today put all their money into growth assets such as equities and bonds because insurance isn’t sexy (it has no yield, in the case of gold). That might work until there is an economic downturn. Then you might want something to help rebuild what has been lost.
This is not just the conclusion of a precious metals brokerage company wanting to sell gold and silver, it is the realization of traditionally minded, trained, and employed stock traders (Don and David McAlvany) who recognized that insurance matters, and both individuals and countries need it. They changed course, and today David continues Don’s business of providing gold as insurance on the individual level.
It’s not always an easy thing. Insurance is not sexy. You’re essentially betting there will be a major political or economic downturn. But if you’re even a casual history buff, you know that major political or economic downturns are a safe bet. People write books about them, and there are thousands of titles in the category.
There are more and more economic storm survivors out there who want insurance for their beautiful investment buildings next time a hurricane hits. If you’re not yet one of them, perhaps you’ll look into the matter and then make hay (get insurance) while the sun shines. Storm clouds are gathering.
Key Takeaways:
- More confirmation that the world is shifting toward gold
- The long term loves gold; the short term wants some space
- Moody silver very psyched this week
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The New, Unofficial, Global Gold Standard
David and Kevin return to a big idea: the world is shifting toward a “new, unofficial global gold standard,” driven less by everyday investor trading and more by government policy, reserve management, and resource security. They argue that as Treasury-and-dollar recycling weakens in a more multipolar order, countries increasingly seek neutral assets for settlement and future contingencies—making gold (and, by implication, silver) less a “trade” and more an essential element of national preparedness. From there, they widen the lens to geopolitics: mounting pressures tied to wars (notably Russia–Ukraine and conflict-linked risk around Iran and Hormuz) and the resulting supply-chain bottlenecks that feed inflation and, in turn, domestic political volatility. They connect energy stress to ripple effects across manufacturing inputs (even noting helium and plastics), talk about potential oil-price spikes as strategic reserves are drawn down, and note how K-shaped economies can make inflation’s effects hit unevenly while discontent brews. They also glance at markets, election-year dynamics, and possible U.S.–China negotiations, all as parts of a broader, system-level pivot.
Hard Asset Insights: Rapidly Approaching
Morgan acknowledges that while precious metals may have started the week strong, a dollar spike and rising global yields ultimately knocked the wind out of their sails, potentially setting up a short-term dip toward support area for gold. But he frames the bigger picture as bullish: Hormuz remains a key energy choke point. With oil inventories reportedly being drawn down at the fastest pace in history, inflation dynamics are poised to intensify (CPI is currently at 3.8% y/y and PPI at 6.0%). He argues the “tank bottom” moment is fast approaching, and that growing cracks showed up in sovereign bond markets—rising yields alongside falling currencies—hinting developed countries may be drifting toward an emerging-market-style debt/inflation bind. The policy dilemma for the U.S. is stark: save the currency or save the bond market, and he expects policymakers to choose the latter, implying dollar debasement and correspondingly higher metals prices.
Golden Rule Radio: Silver’s Explosive Rally
Miles goes solo on the podcast this week, noting that silver was the week’s big mover: it surged about 13% and nearly tagged $90, while gold stayed comparatively flat and platinum continued a steady breakout (with palladium lagging). He argues that this isn’t just chart candy—gold is increasingly being treated like currency as central banks rebuild reserves (with gold’s role shifting from “commodity hedge” to “policy and settlement” when trust in the dollar system gets shaky). That backdrop matters for silver, too, because silver’s volatility can create strategic opportunities—particularly around the gold-to-silver ratio, where past silver buyers may now convert gains into additional gold ounces. On the technical side, he flags $90 as a key “decision point,” noting a potential push toward prior highs near $120 if silver breaks higher. He also adds a quick cross-asset reality check: the stock market’s optimism is concentrated in a few names, while everyday inflation pressure remains real. In his view, precious metals may be one of the clearer places where the story is actually showing up.
