Podcast: Play in new window
Gold and silver just had a blockbuster week, and if you own metals (or are thinking about adding more), you’re in one of those rare windows where smart moves now can compound your ounces for years to come.
Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, January 14:
The price of gold is up about 4.5%, sitting at $4,640. Gold has been flirting all day with new all- time highs as gold is pushing well into the 4,600 range.
The price of silver is up a whopping 22% just since last Wednesday, sitting at $92.60.
Platinum is up 9% to $2,390.
Palladium is up 8% on the last week, sitting just at $1,900 an ounce.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 is down about 0.10% to 6,905. However, the index did put in an all- time high on Monday at around 6,990. So the S&P did break into new territory also.
With everything basically up this week, you’d assume the dollar is down. Well, it’s not.
The US Dollar Index is up 0.5%, sitting at 99.1.
Silver’s Surge and The $100 “Psych” Level
Silver is up roughly 22% just since last Wednesday, trading around the mid‑$90s with intraday moves of 6–7% in a single day, while gold is up about 4.5% and flirting with new all‑time highs around the mid‑$4,600s. The gold/silver ratio has broken down through the 50s and into the high‑40s, a dramatic shift from the 100‑to‑1 levels you saw earlier in 2025.
That puts the “roundest of round numbers” – $100 silver – squarely on the radar as the next emotional line in the sand. Realistically, $100 is just another tick on the chart, but human behavior turns big, clean numbers into temporary ceilings where profit‑taking and hesitation tend to cluster.
Physical‑Driven Demand, Not Speculative Mania
One of the biggest takeaways for you as an investor is that this silver move does not look like a classic Comex‑speculator blow‑off. Margin requirements on silver futures have been raised multiple times in just a few weeks, and yet the market has largely shrugged it off instead of seeing the usual forced liquidations and waterfall declines.
What we’re seeing instead is “big kid” demand: major institutions, corporations, and central banks prioritizing physical control over paper exposure, while China simultaneously restricts exports of silver and other strategic minerals and large Western players reportedly curb silver flows to China. Retail is only now starting to show up “in droves,” but the move was already well underway before that, which tells you this is about strategic positioning, not just small‑investor excitement.
Why the gold–silver ratio is your real opportunity
Earlier this year, when the ratio moved over 100‑to‑1, the strategy was to go heavy into silver – not because gold was “bad,” but because silver was historically cheap in gold terms. Now, with the ratio around 49‑to‑1, many of those trades are sitting on 60–80% or more ounce gains when measured in gold:
- One client who swapped out of 22 one‑ounce gold bars into Silver Eagles around 100‑to‑1 can now trade that silver back into 36.3 ounces of gold – more than 14 “free” ounces – inside an IRA, with no tax drag.
- Another investor, even after factoring in roughly $95,000 in capital‑gains tax on a large taxable silver position, effectively reset his gold cost basis to the equivalent of about $2,840 per ounce because of what silver’s purchasing power did for him.
The key takeaway: the point of owning silver is ultimately to own more gold. And with the ratio already having moved so far, you don’t have to “nail” the exact bottom in the ratio to take smart, partial profits on silver and compound your gold ounces.
Take Emotion Out of Buying
Emotion is the enemy of good ratio trading, so here’s how we suggest you think about it:
- Start with a fraction, not the whole stack. If you bought silver at 80–100‑to‑1 and the ratio is now in the high‑40s, you’ve already harvested a very large percentage of the available move.
- Prioritize IRA and other tax‑advantaged accounts. Inside an IRA, ratio trades are “low‑hanging fruit” because you can move from silver to gold without triggering immediate capital‑gains tax.
- Think like a poker player. Take your original chips – your initial silver gains – off the table and lock them into gold, then let a smaller portion of your silver ride if you truly want to see whether the ratio pushes toward 40‑to‑1.
If your purpose in owning metals is wealth preservation first and profit second, this approach lets you “win” both ways: you’ve increased ounces and improved quality by moving into gold, while still keeping meaningful precious‑metals exposure.
Don’t Let Silver Cloud Your View of Gold
With silver stealing the headlines, gold’s quiet strength is being overlooked – even as it trades at all‑time highs. The combination of a strong dollar, strong stocks, and record‑high gold underscores that gold is the reliable, non‑counterparty store of value.
In other words, enjoy the fireworks in silver, but let the excitement work for you by converting a portion of that outperformance into more gold ounces while the math, not the emotion, is still on your side.
Reach Out Today
The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years experience investing in the precious metals market. We are happy to speak with you about your goals on a no-obligation, complimentary consultation. Reach out to us at 800-525-9556.
