Podcast: Play in new window
Silver leads the precious metals this week with a gain of 4%, gold continues its consolidation period as it crept up about 0.5%. Platinum also climbed up 2%, while palladium widened the gap and dropped 2%. The macro backdrop quietly set up what could be the next big move in metals.
Let’s take a look at where precious metals stand as of Wednesday, March 11:
The price of gold is up about 0.5%, sitting at $5,180.
The price of silver is up about 4% at $85.94.
Platinum is up about 2% sitting at $2,166.
Palladium is down 2% to $1,611, now about $500 below platinum.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 is down 1% this week to 6,775.
The US Dollar Index is up a staggering 0.1%, sitting at 99.22. At least short term, it’s looking strong, but we’ll want to see if that’s true in the long term as well.
Gold’s Bullish “Decision Point”
Gold is stair‑stepping higher inside a rising trading channel, with current prices near the bottom of that bullish range rather than the top. We see a “decision point” coming in the next few weeks: either gold pushes into the $5,600–$5,700 range and breaks out, or it starts printing lower lows and loses some momentum.
Seasonally, we’re in one of gold’s strongest periods (spring), which historically tilts the odds toward a renewed move higher rather than a breakdown.
Being near the lower edge of an intact uptrend often offers better entry points than chasing spikes, especially when seasonals are favorable and the larger bull market remains intact.
Silver’s Strength as China Returns
Silver was the standout this week, up about 4%, and continues to trade in a very wide band — roughly between the high‑$70s and around $90. It had repeated failures so far to hold above that $90 ceiling.
A key driver of the latest pop was China reopening after a two‑week Lunar New Year shutdown, bringing physical and speculative demand back online after being temporarily suppressed. Officials there have already shown they’re willing to halt or limit silver trading during extreme moves, which adds another layer of policy risk to silver’s already volatile profile.
Silver’s combination of strategic demand (energy, tech, defense) and policy‑driven volatility makes it ideal “torque” on top of a core gold position.
Dollar Uptrend Fading
The US dollar has bounced roughly 4% off its February lows and is testing the top of a year‑long downtrend channel, with upside room toward roughly $104–$105 if it breaks out, but substantial downside if the longer‑term decline resumes.
At the same time, most major equity indices (outside of Dow transports) are showing topping patterns and short‑term bearish signals. There is a risk of a 10–15% correction in the S&P 500 and potentially 20–25% in tech. How equities behave from here will likely decide whether the dollar’s recent strength extends (classic “flight to cash”) or rolls back over, which in turn will influence short‑term moves in gold and silver.
Geopolitics and Stagflation Risks
Metals pricing is certainly influenced by the shifting geopolitical map: ongoing operations in Iran, regime change and resource access in Venezuela, renewed US leverage over strategic shipping and energy flows (Panama Canal, Cuba risk, Hormuz), and new US projects in refining and strategic mineral smelting.
Layered on top of that are uncomfortable domestic data points: CPI running around 2.4% (still above the Fed’s target), unemployment at 4.4% with 7.6 million Americans jobless and manufacturing employment shrinking, even as another FOMC meeting looms and the US must refinance roughly $10.8 trillion in debt this year at higher rates.
This is a stagflationary setup with heavy Treasury issuance, weakening long‑term bond demand. We can see a credible path to a sub‑$90 dollar and gold at or above $6,000 this year.
How to Invest Right Now
Remember, news doesn’t move markets, it just speeds up or slows down the trend. What you do before a crisis matters far more than what you do in the middle of one. Our recommendation:
- Prioritize physical ownership with minimal counterparty risk—avoid rehypothecated, heavily leveraged, or purely paper claims on metal.
- Treat gold as the money metal and silver as a tool to grow your eventual gold ounces via ratio trades, especially inside IRAs where gains are tax‑sheltered.
- Use sharp pullbacks from panic or policy shocks as opportunities to add or upgrade positions instead of waiting for a “perfect” entry that may never appear.
Here to Help
The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years experience investing in the precious metals market. We are happy to speak with you about your goals on a no-obligation, complimentary consultation. Reach out to us at 800-525-9556.
