To understand why the precious metals are doing well is to understand a great deal about the world at present. The forces in play are massive, the changes historic, and the implications crucial for everyone who interacts with money—which is basically everyone who has moved out of Mom and Pop’s basement.
Unfortunately, countless millions (billions?) of investors, savers, and users of money do not understand what’s happening. Their many-decade experience with fiat currency has created in them trust and habit that betray them during this historic sea change.
Like Tashtego nailing a flag to the mast of the sinking Pequod, they remain at their elevated station to the last, attending to the ordinary as the calamitous envelops them. Meanwhile, Captain Petrodollar Ahab has been ensnared in the harpoon rope as the gold whale buries him without a trace beneath the uncaring waves.
In this allegory, we hope we can call you Ishmael—a hale survivor of this epic encounter with reality. Toward that end, be sure to continue reading or listening to the below publications. If you’ve learned from them over the past year and put your learning into action, you’re far wealthier in dollar terms than you were 12 months ago.
Key Takeaways:
- Treasuries channel Toby Keith—“not as good as I once was”
- Is owning dollars dangerous?
- Metals getting their footing in slippery terrain
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: U.S. Athletes Win Gold, Big Money Is Buying It
David and Kevin devote most of this episode to the shifting foundations of global credit markets, using recent Olympic triumphs as a nostalgic on-ramp to a far weightier discussion about gold, debt, and eroding confidence in U.S. Treasuries. David argues that today’s gold cycle is more durable than 1980’s peak because of structural over-indebtedness, noting that with debt and debt service on nearly $40 trillion consuming over 20% of tax revenues, the U.S. cannot replicate Volcker-era rate hikes. Instead, he suggests gradual currency debasement and financial repression are the likely path forward, particularly as policymakers eye a weaker dollar to stay competitive with China. The pair explores a Financial Times warning that Treasuries’ “safe haven” status is fraying, while capital favors equities over long bonds. They then turn to private credit’s rapid expansion, highlighting Blue Owl’s suspension of redemptions as a potential “canary in the coal mine” moment reminiscent of 2007. With AI-linked lending, commercial real estate losses, and lofty private equity valuations under pressure, David ties Doug Noland’s “periphery to core” risk migration to John Exter’s inverted liquidity pyramid—where, in unsettled times, capital flows down toward gold.
Hard Asset Insights: The Bad Character
Morgan argues that the near-term outlook for precious metals has turned meaningfully more bullish, even as the medium- to long-term case was never in doubt. He notes that the probability of another short-term leg lower in gold and silver has dropped sharply—from roughly 45% to 15%—thanks to strong technical signals: gold and silver closed at new post-correction highs, gold mining ETFs hit fresh all-time highs, and miners have broken out not only versus the S&P 500 but also against physical gold. Historically, he explains, miners tend to underperform when metals fall and outperform when they rise, so their recent strength suggests the sector may be gearing up for another powerful bull leg. Morgan reinforces the technical case with a fundamental one, citing Jeff Currie’s remark that investors are hoarding gold because “owning dollars is dangerous”—and, more broadly, that fiat currencies themselves are “the bad character.” In that vacuum of trust, gold reasserts itself as real money. He closes with a snapshot of weekly market performance, highlighting strong gains across precious metals and miners, modest equity weakness, softer Treasury yields, and a slightly lower dollar.
Golden Rule Radio: Metals Regain Momentum
The GRR team focuses this week on renewed strength across the precious metals complex, highlighting gold’s steady recovery and silver’s explosive rebound. They note that gold has climbed back to roughly $5,170, methodically retracing prior losses and continuing its march toward recent highs, underscoring its role as the market’s calm, consistent leader. In contrast, silver has “rocketed” nearly 16% in a sharp burst of volatility, once again reminding investors that it tends to move faster and more dramatically than gold in both directions. The hosts frame the key question as whether silver can build on this surge and sustain upside momentum, or whether it will need to consolidate after such a rapid advance. Beyond gold and silver, they point to broad-based strength in the sector, with platinum and palladium also posting solid gains, signaling that the rally is not isolated but rather a coordinated move across metals. Overall, the tone is constructive: momentum appears to be returning, and while volatility remains part of the terrain, the underlying trend suggests the metals market is regaining its footing.
Photo: I. W. Taber, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
