Crisis is a Process The market narrative this week was split between stagflation, as economic growth slows but elevated inflation signals remain far stickier [...]

Author Nassim Taleb accurately observed that, “experience in finance with a discount rate near zero is like having studied physics except without gravity.” [...]

Famed Austrian economist Ludwig Von Mises warned that the Keynesian means of delivering “apparent prosperity” was inherently unsustainable. The [...]

Seat Belts Fastened; a Hard Landing Seems Likely Given the long holiday weekend and travel plans this week, HAI will merely offer weekly prices and a few very [...]

Return-Free Risk vs. the Economic Truth With the final March tally now in the books, the S&P 500 was up 3.51%, the 10-year US Treasury note gained 3.37%, [...]

Essentially Broken This week, the regional banking crisis in the US took a back seat to emerging troubles at major European banks. Adding to the existing [...]

The Ides of March In Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, the seer warned, “beware the ides of March.” Well, it may not be Shakespeare, and it certainly isn’t [...]

Precious Metals at a Crucial Macro Moment This week, BNP Paribas Senior US Economist Yelena Shulyatyeva told Bloomberg, “At this point, it’s clear. We [...]

Moment of Truth Over the past two weeks, HAI has highlighted the incredibly important technical support zone between 3,900 and 4,000 on the S&P 500. This [...]

The Heat is On Last week, HAI observed that the S&P 500 had broken below the rising trend channel that defined the rally off December lows. The implication [...]

Magical Disinflation Theory This week, the S&P 500 broke below its rising trend channel that has defined the rally off of December lows. The channel trend [...]

Inflationary Fire or Recessionary Ice This week was relatively calm for markets and uneventful on the economic data calendar. These were welcome and merciful [...]

Seeing Through the Fog of War HAI has long viewed the outbreak of consumer price inflation to 40-year highs as a consequential game changer for the economy and [...]

The Next FOMC Meeting Could Be Historic This week, HAI is being composed in the skies high above America—regrettably, in a plane with no Wi-Fi. A popular [...]

Commodity Bull – Now or Later? This week, major market indexes were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrials dramatically underperformed, the S&P 500 was also [...]