These are indeed interesting times (thanks, Middle Kingdom, for that thoughtful wish). What’s true at breakfast is changed by lunch and unrecognizable by dinner. If you feel like you’re playing pool during an earthquake, you’re not alone.
In the midst of such ceaseless flux, the content creators whose work is summarized below can sound like a broken record: Gold is strong. Events—including pullbacks in gold price—haven’t changed that. More events? Gold’s still strong. More pullbacks? Gold’s still strong. Umpteenth verse same as the first. More tension, turmoil, and temerity? You guessed it—gold’s still strong.
It’s not always like this. When governments make well-understood and productive decisions, gold’s help and rescue functions are not seen as necessary by most people. But now, as almost the entire world wakes up to the verity of Margaret Thatcher’s dictum (”the problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money”), the most socialist nations are in trouble.
The OPM (other people’s money) the world has run on since Bretton Woods has been U.S dollars backed by American taxpayers, provided in one form or another. That source is now tapped out, decimated productively, confused morally, and massively in debt. Formerly supported nations are scrambling to become productive or find another source of funds before they become failed states.
That includes America, which has socialized its people almost as much as many of the nations it doled out money and materiel to. And for all the changes President Trump has made, he has left most of the country’s social programs intact.
Perhaps that’s necessary in a democracy with elections coming up soon, but it does little to address the problems of redistributive policies. They are cripplingly expensive—both in reduction in capital available for investment and useful production, and in initial cost as money is taken from productive sources, hugely diminished by administrative costs and inefficiency and fraud, and trickled down to less productive recipients. This astronomical cost is not offset by greater productivity elsewhere because there usually is no “elsewhere.” And even if there is an elsewhere (such as America, for much of the world over the past 80 years), it is then deprived of funds as well.
Will this economic truth undermine Trump’s attempt to grow America out of debt? Time will tell, and most thoughtful citizens (not just supporters) hope he’ll be successful, for the sake of the nation. But with such enormous stakes and such disparate possible outcomes, it remains wise to get, or keep, your own house in order. Toward that end, be sure to read or listen to the below publications.
Key Takeaways:
- Markets want an independent Fed
- Gold’s “up” influences still larger than its “down” ones
- Gold’s technical indicators remains strong
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Going to “Warsh” That Debt Right Out of Our Hair
David and Kevin kick off their weekly wrap by zeroing in on the week’s “Warsh” headline: new Fed leadership and what it could mean for rates, inflation, the Fed’s balance sheet, and—most pressingly—America’s debt dynamics. David argues the bond market wants proof the Fed won’t act like a “shadow White House operator,” warning that any perceived loss of Fed independence could push higher yields into the long end of the curve, especially with roughly “nearly 16 trillion” in foreign fixed-income holdings in play. He frames today’s Fed challenge as a credibility test after years of “financial repression,” suggesting bond investors may not be impressed by being a captive audience. From there, the conversation pivots to a politically charged Iran “memorandum of understanding” and the knock-on risks for oil, inflation, and market volatility. They also note that the current peace talk may be more “ceasefire” than settled deal, with Israel operating under a different understanding. Along the way, they toss in notes on central bank gold buying, why the 60/40 is feeling frayed, and the ongoing tug-of-war between stock overvaluation and hard-asset appeal.
Hard Asset Insights: Should Be Fun
Morgan opens by noting that a “big week” delivered both a first step toward an Iran peace effort via a signed MoU and the first post-FOMC press conference from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—yet precious metals quickly returned to the seller’s crosshairs as investors feared a more “super-hawk” regime. Lewis argues that Warsh’s inflation-first messaging (“price stability” won’t take prisoners) collides with harsh fiscal reality: entitlement spending, interest expense, and defense spending absorb all tax revenue, implying the U.S. needs inflation, and cutting—especially by raising rates—lifts Treasury yields, hurts tax receipts, and risks a sovereign-debt spiral. From there, the piece frames gold’s near-term pullback as a counter-trend inside a larger bull move, driven by weaponized dollar mechanics, brutal fiscal math, and the idea that “if Warsh actually delivers price stability, he’ll also drive a Western sovereign debt spiral.” Morgan also notes ongoing central-bank gold accumulation and frames gold/silver volatility as an integral part of participating in markets. He ends with a weekly performance snapshot and a wry wink: it should be fun.
Golden Rule Radio: FED Sparks Market Volatility
Tory, Miles, and Rob frame a wild week in precious metals as a “Fed’s got a mic” moment: gold closed up about 4.25% (around 4,250), silver up about 5.5% (around 67.50), and other metals also ended higher—even after an afternoon reversal triggered by the FOMC. Warsh kept rates steady at 3.5–3.75% but, crucially, the dot plot’s message (with nine of eighteen members seeing a possible 2026 hike) spooked bond markets, spiked Treasury yields, jolted the dollar, and knocked roughly 1.2 trillion off the S&P 500 in under two hours. They highlight a key “look-under-the-lid” warning from the bond market: the 5-year yield around 4.25% sitting above the fed funds rate signals buyers are getting choosier, which isn’t a recipe for long-run dollar strength. From there they discuss gold’s structural support, lessening “flight to Treasuries,” central bank buying, and a public still playing catch-up, then wrap with “buy-the-dip” playbook ideas (think ounces, use the gold-silver ratio, prefer IRA trades) amid Iran risk, credit stress, and ongoing inflation-target credibility concerns.
