It was King Solomon who penned a truism for the ages when he noted that, “Hope deferred makes the heart sick, but a longing fulfilled is a tree of life.” This observation pertains to all of life, but gold bugs know it well. Gold often spends more time in corrections or doldrums than they would like, but when it soars, wow, it soars!
We’ve seen that “soar” phenomenon in action over the past few years, but 2026 has brought gold investors mainly hope deferred. Is the tree of life about to reappear? There are many signs it will. David McAlvany occasionally reminds us that “there’s many a slip ’twixt the cup and the lip,” and surprises are not uncommon in this realm, but the analysts featured below discuss the immense forces putting long-term upward pressure on gold’s price.
Key Takeaways:
- Good questions, solid answers
- Anticipating the debasement trade
- The gold elevator’s going up, but might have some stops on the way
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Fort Knox, Dollar Devaluation, and the Future of Gold
David and Kevin field audience questions on a range of money and metals themes, with the “big rocks” leading: the slow erosion of purchasing power, the possibility (and mechanics) of a deliberate dollar devaluation to ease debt burdens, and how the Federal Reserve’s stated 2% inflation target can matter “at scale” even without a sudden dollar collapse. They frame gold’s rise as a repricing into a new equilibrium—supported by structural forces like persistent deficits and central-bank accumulation—while noting that retail participation is still a swing factor, even if central-bank “gold recycling” trade dynamics could substitute for some of it. They then wander through practicalities: coins vs. bullion bars, premium variability, and how metals IRAs can make “tax alpha” possible (including required minimum distribution logistics for those 73+). Along the way, they touch on Fort Knox and whether gold is encumbered via leasing, the future role of CBDCs, risks of counterparty exposure, and even oil supply/demand—ending with seasonality and an eye on what could be the next major move for precious metals.
Hard Asset Insights: The Tip of the Spear
Morgan builds on a recurring rock and hard place theme: with new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC, the U.S. appears trapped in “fiscal dominance,” where towering deficits and debt help force policy choices that prioritize financing needs over strict inflation control. Morgan then uses fresh support from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC)—notably record July budget deficit and rising monthly interest expense—to argue the government’s position is getting precarious, especially while investors are also watching for any sign that policy will avoid rate hikes that could spook bonds, stocks, the economy, and fiscal math all at once. From there, HAI links recent developments tied to Scott Bessent—such as currency intervention to support the yen and hints about reducing long-bond supply—to a potential “yield curve control”-type reality, framing it as the groundwork for a “debasement trade.” Gold is presented as the tip of that spear: as the market shifts from comforting rhetoric to policy reality, debasement is likelier to win, with gold and the broader precious-metals complex benefiting alongside a wider mix of commodities and market metrics.
Golden Rule Radio: Metals Shake Off The Pullback
Rob, Tory, and Miles host the program this week, and frame the latest metals action as a classic “shake off the pullback” moment: gold and silver just posted their strongest week in months, with gold around $4,410 and silver above $65. The bigger picture shows a roughly 12% gold gain in three weeks and about an 18% jump for silver. They emphasize that the market is nearing a key resistance zone around $4,400—so the recovery is still viewed as cyclical rather than an automatic green light for a fully resumed bull trend until gold can clear and hold near $5,000. Under the hood, positioning is called overwhelmingly bullish (managed money heavily net long), while major banks’ targets are cited as supportive signals—not a retail “head fake.” They also note ratio traders: despite silver’s strength, the gold-to-silver ratio hasn’t shifted much yet. From there, they zoom out to a four-cycle/Elliott wave-style view (A wave up, a likely B-wave retracement, then a bigger C wave), and tie it to the monetary backdrop—record money supply growth, rising debt/interest costs, yield-curve control dynamics, sovereign stress, China shifting gold from London to Hong Kong, and even elevated equity margin debt.
