In an earthquake, a mudslide, or an erupting volcano, the landscape moves—which is often highly traumatic for those who witness or experience it. For daily life, we obviously depend on the earth not to move. When it does, it can be extremely disruptive.
The same could be said of economic systems. We rely on them for just about every financial transaction we make, and much of life turns on those transactions—food, shelter, medicine, education, transportation, work, and much more.
So when economic systems change, lives are disrupted—for good or ill. When Lenin, Mao, Pol Pot, and others implemented communism in their countries, millions starved or died of disease or lack of shelter (not to mention political murder, which is a topic for another time). Millions of others lived impoverished lives.
When America implemented a Hamiltonian system of national economic protection after freeing itself from the control of the most powerful nation on earth at the time, it transformed itself into the most productive and opportunity-rich economy in the world by a few decades into the 20th century.
All this simply underlines what is already apparent to most people: we are undergoing a seismic shift in our economy. The goal has been clearly stated by the Trump administration, though it has not been widely covered by the major media. We are attempting to return from globalism to Hamiltonian economics—often called the American system. Will we make it? What will it mean for those of us who just hunker down and live life at the modest private level every day?
No human can definitively say what the answers to these questions are, but David and Morgan delve into them this week. Their analysis is deep and informed, and they don’t advise committing to a given outcome. Instead, what they say can help you deal with most of the possibilities that could occur. Adaptability over commitment to an outcome: that’s an apt approach for uncertain times.
Key Takeaways:
- Hard assetslook promising
- New system? Only if walk accompanies talk
- Discipline and process are key
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Old Market Order Is Breaking—What It Means for Gold
David and Kevin frame this episode as a “regime shift” story, pointing to why the assumptions that guided markets for decades may no longer fit an environment of persistent inflation, rising debt, elevated valuations, and dollar pressure. To make their points, they draw from a recent MWM webinar that David hosted, and that featured Morgan Lewis. The excerpted text links the gold outlook to the idea that higher real rates may hurt gold only in a “healthy” system—arguing today’s system is far from healthy due to a potential debt spiral and fiscal constraints. The webinar speakers also revisit how the Fed, bond-market stress, and changing rate expectations complicate everything. Equities appear stretched (the speakers highlight narrow breadth and rich valuation metrics), and hard assets—commodities, infrastructure, precious metals miners, and select REIT exposure—could be the more resilient play, with HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) as a guiding lens. Morgan added a broader geopolitical angle: a shifting petrodollar landscape, China’s SIPS payment rails, and gold-linked settlement supporting central bank demand. The speakers address gold’s price path without heavy retail participation (noting prior central bank-driven surges), discuss potential upside scenarios (including the Dow/gold ratio approach), and conclude with the central claim that while retail may define the ceiling, central banks may be setting the floor.
Hard Asset Insights: The New Era That Awaits
Morgan lays out a “new era” thesis in which the Trump administration’s talk of “Hamiltonian economics” could mark a shift away from the post-1971 U.S. dollar system toward a world where trade deficits are settled using a neutral reserve asset—“almost certainly gold”—instead of U.S. bonds and stock. Morgan frames this as both an industrial policy reset (tariffs plus capital controls) and a power-restraint move: if trading partners can’t gain so much leverage via U.S. financial assets, the U.S. manufacturing base may stop getting choked by a structurally too-strong dollar. He also introduces a tension check—Hamiltonian economics sounds like the cure, yet current war footing (including Iran) suggests there may be a production and capacity problem preventing the cure from being implemented. Morgan argues that gold would need to play a bigger global role and that the gold market must scale accordingly, echoing John Paulson’s view that we’re early in a long gold bull run. He rounds things out with a weekly market snapshot (gold up, silver up more, S&P modestly down) and notes China’s gold import surge, implying further confidence from major buyers.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold Eyes Higher Prices
Rob and Miles note that gold and silver strengthened together—gold up about 2.5% and silver about 4.5%—and frame the move as potential evidence of a durable bottom rather than a “panic-and-pray” rally. They point to chart structure: after a bull-market run into late 2025/early 2026, a sharp March correction, and a slow bleed toward an end-of-June low near 3,950, they argue the market is now in a consolidation phase. The episode emphasizes a potential double-bottom in the near term, plus improving momentum signals (like the RSI rising off the decline). For actionable watch-points, they cite levels of 4,200 (first confirmation line), then 4,350–4,400 (next hurdle), and 4,800–4,900 (where an earlier bull attempt failed). They also stress consistency over cleverness: buying near the 65-week moving average is portrayed as a steadier “consistency trigger” than trying to nail tops and bottoms. Finally, they add practical cautions—don’t buy predictions from the internet, and don’t keep waiting for “one more dip”—while briefly tying the outlook to seasonality (July to fall strength) and ongoing deficit pressure. As always, the credibility of the dealer you buy from is critical.
