As he has tried to reestablish the American economic system at home, President Trump has concomitantly tried to break up the world’s hidebound alliances that have fixed grievances that must be perennially fought over. Iran, of course, didn’t get the memo. Apparently it spent too much money on uranium enrichment, missiles, drones, proxy forces, and secret police to afford fax paper, so “death to America” persists—or perhaps just death.
But that quagmire for America (the Iran war) hands Trump’s enemies a “yuge” stick to beat him with. And no one knows how that stick will transmit to poll levers in November. We won’t settle any of that here, but in the midst of continuing uncertainty it might be wise to inject some certainty into your portfolio. Gold has accomplished this for millions of people for thousands of years, and it’s still in the business. Central banks are amassing gold by the tens—and sometimes hundreds—of tons, precisely because they see the old economic system failing them. Perhaps they know something Western investors don’t?
Key Takeaways:
- Western traders still missing gold’s fundamental strength
- Jagger on economics: you can’t always get what you want
- ’Tis the season for low gold demand—but seasons end
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Summer Quiet Is the Best Time to Accumulate Metals
David and Kevin begin by noting that “summer quiet” in markets can be a sweet spot for steadily accumulating precious metals, since participation fades as vacations and routine pull investors away from trading desks. David describes the seasonal pattern that typically pertains: gold and silver tend to drift through summer with relative indifference, leaving technical support levels to watch—gold stabilizing near its 65-week moving average and silver holding above its own, with a weekly close above key thresholds framed as potential evidence the correction is ending. From there, the conversation broadens to equity market signals: declining volume near highs, a “Dow theory” non-confirmation, and improving breadth (advance-decline line strength) as immediately leading or coincident with major market tops. They also highlight how momentum can reverse—especially where AI-crowded positioning is concerned—using Samsung’s earnings-driven drop as a reminder that expectations can outrun fundamentals. Finally, they point to structural gold demand from central banks and China’s rising imports, adding a geopolitical twist, before concluding with the idea that the second half of the year may bring more volatility, so investors should consider rotating toward value and staying disciplined while enjoying the summer.
Hard Asset Insights: Magician’s Sleight of Hand
Morgan opens by framing the piece as a brief, post-Rule Symposium note—hot south Florida, macro thinkers, mining CEOs, and, of course, Rick Rule’s conference—before turning to what he views as a key “magician’s sleight of hand” around the U.S. push for a strong, dominant dollar advanced by Trump, Kevin Warsh, and Scott Bessent. Morgan summarizes Bessent’s five principles for “economic statecraft” (national capacity, reciprocity, rule-writing, financial leadership, and serving the American people), then argues the set can’t comfortably coexist with the current dollar-centric global monetary system. By Morgan’s lights, the U.S. would need a materially weaker dollar and a neutral reserve asset—practically, gold—to rebuild capacity and meet those aims, yet the messaging is designed to camouflage this transition for short-term political reasons. He points to China’s long-standing discussion of a neutral reserve and to Reuters data about China’s gold reserves rising even as bullion prices have dipped, interpreting it as part of ongoing dedollarization and a shift toward a new order where gold would be the natural beneficiary.
Golden Rule Radio: Geopolitics Test Gold’s Strength
Rob, Tory, and Miles frame the week’s big news as a test that gold passes: even as bond yields spiked, the dollar climbed back above 101, and oil jumped on renewed Iranian escalation, gold still finished higher. They run through the snapshot—gold around $4,080, silver down near $58 (pushing the gold–silver ratio back to about 70:1), and platinum/palladium largely softer—then argue the key character shift is that gold is now shrugging off its usual headwinds, implying a different marginal buyer. That buyer, they say, is China’s persistent physical demand: for 20 straight months, net gold imports have added to reserves, while dedollarization proceeds and reserve managers watch U.S. moves such as Treasury freezes as another signal. They also connect the ratio reversal to a familiar playbook: in slow grinding markets, gold tends to beat silver, and silver may later reheat on industrial fundamentals (solar, defense, EV batteries, data centers). Finally, they outline watch levels (reclaiming the 65-week moving average, potential paths toward $4,200 and $4,400) and offer “don’t wait for the crisis” takeaways—add near the 65-week average, revisit silver-to-gold swaps, and keep an eye on the risk of a serious equity selloff.
