Unsurprisingly, events remain interesting and uncertain. Trump’s and Bessent’s attempt to reestablish the American System is spawning ever more radical opposition, which perhaps surprisingly has a long record of “success.” People engaged in everyday pursuits do in fact grow extremely weary of a constant harangue, and then often vote against their own interests just to make it stop.
There is of course much more to it, but the above is mentioned simply to emphasize that despite the statistics showing strong support for Trump among voters, the mid-term elections are still very much in doubt. And if the far left is successful in the elections, the noise level will not go down. It will greatly increase as every effort possible is made to stop the Trump agenda.
With so much at stake and so much uncertainty surrounding the global economic system, having an asset with no counterparty risk has never been more important. By all means, pursue whatever investing path you consider wise and fruitful, but don’t forget to insure your productive assets with an asset that can never be rendered worthless by other people’s actions.
Key Takeaways:
- The big picture remains bullish for gold
- Does the Fed talk a different path than it can walk?
- What you can see is not all there is
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Increasing Use Of Chinese Yuan Is Bullish For Gold
David and Kevin begin with the most important thread: growing use of the Chinese yuan in world trade, and how it may quietly be “bullish for gold” as dollar recycling gives way to gold recycling—especially if net trade imbalances can be settled neutrally rather than forcing more accumulation of dollars or RMB. From there, they widen the lens to global economic imbalances driven by policy choices, reshoring and strategic vulnerabilities, and the tightrope policymakers walk when deficits, inflation pressure, and interest-rate politics all collide. They also fold in the “Dow/gold ratio” as a reality-check: while the Dow may look strong in headline terms, its gold-relative performance has been far weaker over 25 years, pointing to long-term value compression. Along the way, they play with the “magic rabbit” idea of AI as a productivity cure, distinguish secular vs. cyclical market timing, and note how disciplined ratio trades could help investors compound ounces—preferably with fewer guesses and more frameworks than emotions.
Hard Asset Insights: The Invisible Hand
Morgan opens with the week’s main market storyline: precious metals had been sliding, but this holiday-shortened period brought some stabilization as the U.S. labor market cooled—job growth slowed, prior payroll gains were revised lower, and markets started backing off hopes for a near-term hawkish rate hike under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The piece then lays out a “hawkish while you can” view of Warsh, arguing that fiscal reality (and a Treasury issuance pattern favoring the front end of the curve) leaves the Fed facing credibility versus debt-spiral tradeoffs. Warsh’s own comments about inflation risks easing after an Iran-conflict end serve as a potential “off-ramp,” though the author suggests markets may still be underpricing secular inflation and credibility risk. From there, the narrative widens: China’s yuan internationalization—linked to gold and settlement options—is framed as advancing via cross-border transaction growth and network effects (including CIPS), weakening the practical punch of the “weaponized dollar” in real time. Morgan closes with a market performance snapshot, then pivots to Independence Day—freedom under the enduring “invisible hand” guiding America’s long game.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold Market Reset
Miles, Tory, and Rob kick things off with the big setup: after a brutal Q2, precious metals bounced, with gold back above the $4,000 mark (around 4,065)) and silver hovering near $60, while the broader “paper markets” and the dollar offered only mild confirmation. They then zoom out to frame the pullback as digestion rather than disaster—gold’s worst quarter in 13 years sounds scary, but the trailing 12 months still look bullish. Technically, the charts-are-lining-up theme is front and center: gold touching its 65-week moving average, moving-average crossovers around a Fibonacci retracement zone, and RSI bullish divergence all point to a plausible trading range roughly $4,000–4,400. They also list four likely drivers—seasonality, forced liquidations, the Iran-related risk/dollar/yield cocktail, and an overshoot correction. Finally, they argue the fundamentals haven’t blinked: China’s steady reserve additions, global gold outpacing Treasuries, record M2 growth, and mounting debt. The takeaway is classic: patient, stair-step buying at support beats chasing euphoric spikes.
