In some ways, America is like Michael Phelps—still a spectacular athlete, but no longer winning gold medals like a machine. Can Trump whip America into top shape again? He’s certainly trying.
Phelps, it is said, has won more medals than 161 countries. But if you put him in the Olympics today, he might not continue that streak. And while that matter might be debated, all debate would end if you tied a 40-pound weight around his waist before he jumped in the pool.
For America, the analogous weight is its debt—$40 trillion-worth—you know, the debt that so many economic luminaries said doesn’t matter because we owe it to ourselves. The debt that both parties have added to with reckless abandon for decades. Well, that disrespected debt now completely dominates our economic policy, our cost of living, and the future of the dollar.
Looking at the equities markets today, you might suspect that the “luminaries” are right. But the analysts whose work is summarized below take the radical view that elephants in rooms should not be ignored—or joined by other elephants, which is what the cronyists, globalists, fascists, socialists, and communists—and even Trump, to a significant extent—want to do or are doing.
If you suspect that, despite the administration’s efforts to strengthen America’s economy, there remain ominous indications for at least the short term, be sure to read these publications to see what you can do to keep your own financial situation strong.
Key Takeaways:
- Conflicting signals—are we doing well or about to tank?
- Will the Fed offer the government assisted suicide or give it aid?
- If you can stub your toe on it, it will likely do well in the market
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Markets Say Sweet, But Mood Sour At Home
David and Kevin focus on the striking split between buoyant financial markets and sour household sentiment, arguing that risk assets are enjoying unusually loose financial conditions while consumers are still squeezed by inflation, high grocery and fuel costs, weak affordability, and recession-like confidence readings. David walks through the market “mood gauges”—AAII sentiment, professional manager exposure, margin debt, the CNN Fear & Greed Index, VIX, high-yield spreads, and credit default swaps—and finds most still flashing calm seas, even as consumer data tells a very different story. The conversation then turns to possible fault lines: the Mag 7 becoming the “Lag 7,” rotation out of semiconductors, heavy leverage, and record zero-coupon convertible issuance tied heavily to AI. In bonds, David sees pressure building first in sovereign debt, with rising U.S., U.K., Japanese, and European yields, swelling interest costs, and continued Treasury buybacks. Finally, they connect gold to shifting trust: the Dutch want gold moved closer to home, Norway is trimming sovereign debt exposure, China keeps buying, and David argues pullbacks in gold should be used to add ounces before broader alarm bells ring.
Hard Asset Insights: Remembering 9/11; Awaiting a Hike
Morgan opens with a solemn remembrance of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, honoring those lost and the courage and character Americans displayed in the crisis, before turning to the week’s main financial matter: what new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will do at the September FOMC meeting. After hotter PPI and CPI data, Morgan says markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point hike, but he frames it as a likely hawkish “head fake” rather than the start of a serious inflation-fighting cycle. In his view, true tightening would collide with America’s fragile fiscal position, pushing up the dollar and Treasury yields, pressuring stocks and tax receipts, and worsening debt-service strains. He argues that the U.S. is in fiscal dominance, with core obligations already overwhelming tax receipts, making lower interest costs the path of least resistance. Morgan also highlights ideas from Robin Brooks and John Cochrane suggesting a possible Treasury-Fed accord to keep borrowing costs down by shortening debt maturities and later lowering rates. Meanwhile, China’s continued gold buying signals a hard-asset vote of confidence. Weekly markets were mixed, with metals mostly down, oil higher, and 10-year Treasury yields up sharply.
Golden Rule Radio: The Cracks Are Showing
Miles, Tory, and Rob argue that beneath a deceptively calm gold market, important stresses are beginning to show: gold was nearly flat around $4,398, but copper hit a fresh all-time high, platinum jumped more than 7%, oil pushed back toward or above key levels, and the dollar weakened again. They spend the most time on copper as a “Dr. Copper” signal, suggesting its breakout may point to a broader commodity supercycle in which silver, platinum, copper, and other hard assets benefit while everyday costs rise. They also highlight oil and diesel as inflation bellwethers, especially because higher transport costs ripple through the whole economy. A major concern is the Treasury market, where buybacks of longer-dated debt reportedly failed to tame rising yields, raising doubts about Washington’s debt path. The hosts connect this to persistent inflation, large deficits, interest costs, and the limits of Fed policy. They also note gold’s unusual 2026 volatility as an alarm bell, China’s continued central-bank gold buying, and practical opportunities in physical metals, semi-numismatic coins, junk silver, and ratio-based swaps.
