President Trump’s policies and actions continue to produce results at odds with the predictions of many experts. Virtually every commentator, analyst, and prognosticator has an opinion on the subject, but all the angst, anger, agency, and adulation basically boil down to this: Are Trump’s policies the solution to America’s very substantial problems or are they merely delaying—and possibly aggravating—the inevitable?
Doug’s take on this subject is that truth will out, cause determines effect, and bubbles that are not deflated early and wisely will burst—Philosophy, Physics, and Finance 101, Cliff Notes version. If the Big Beautiful Bill does much to stimulate the economy, it also does much to keep the bubble growing. Can that bubble’s content of gargantuan and increasing debt begin to be replaced with productive economic activity, or will the attempt burst the whole darn thing? Stay tuned to the publications below for incisive and pertinent analysis as this story continues to unfold.
Key Takeaways:
- Make markets, not war
- Bubble effects can be delayed, but not denied
- Happy 4th!
- White metals continue to be where the action is
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: The Power of Economic Warfare: Edward Fishman on Chokepoints, Sanctions & Strategy
In this week’s episode of MWC, David and Kevin welcome Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, to explore how modern conflict is fought not with soldiers but with “guerrillas in gray suits.” Edward unpacks the rise of economic statecraft, where nations leverage financial systems, sanctions, and supply chain control to reshape power dynamics. From the Strait of Hormuz to semiconductor supply chains, today’s chokepoints are less about geography and more about technology and finance. Edward illustrates how the U.S. wields its dominance over the dollar and key industries to maintain influence, while warning of the unintended consequences—like central banks ramping up gold reserves and nations hedging against U.S. power. The trio also discusses the historical shift from boots-on-the-ground warfare to economic tools like sanctions, export controls, and targeted legal actions, with examples ranging from Iran to Russia and China. As Edward notes, the challenge ahead is balancing coercion with collaboration, ensuring that America’s use of economic tools doesn’t undermine its long-term global standing.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: Big, Ugly Crisis of Confidence
Doug delivers a sobering analysis of the precarious state of global markets in this week’s CBB, spotlighting the crisis of confidence alluded to in his title. He begins by dissecting the reckless fiscal policies fueling historic bubbles, including the U.S. Senate’s passage of a $3.3 trillion debt-expanding bill. Doug critiques the loosening of financial conditions, with junk bond spreads narrowing and speculative excess running rampant. Meanwhile, gold surged to $3,337, reflecting growing unease amid escalating inflation risks and a weakening dollar, which has tumbled 10.4% year-to-date. He highlights the Federal Reserve’s struggle to maintain independence under intensifying political pressure, as President Trump’s administration takes aim at Chair Powell, amplifying fears of unrestrained monetary policy. Globally, Doug underscores alarming parallels, from the U.K.’s bond market turmoil to China’s export controls and India’s regulatory crackdown on market manipulation. While financial conditions seem deceptively calm, Doug warns that speculative leverage, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal mismanagement are brewing a storm that could destabilize markets worldwide. He closes with a call for renewed market discipline, noting that bubbles, once entrenched, are nearly impossible to deflate without systemic consequences.
Hard Asset Insights: Happy 4th of July!
Morgan offers Independence Day greetings this week, citing George Washington’s acknowledgement of “the invisible hand which conducts the affairs of men” as the source of America’s distinction and great blessing. Very much in that spirit, all of us here at MFG hope you had a wonderful holiday and a restful weekend.
Golden Rule Radio: Platinum’s Power Move
This week on GRR, Miles and Rob dissect the recent fireworks in the precious metals market, with platinum stealing the show. After a dramatic 9% single-day swing, platinum closed the week up 4% to $1,433, cementing its role as the standout performer of Q2 with a stunning 34% quarterly gain. Palladium followed closely, climbing 5.5% to $1,070 after its own wild ride. Meanwhile, gold took a sharp dip to $3,240 before rebounding to end the week modestly higher, while silver mirrored the broader market’s turbulence with a 4% drop and subsequent recovery. Miles highlights how platinum’s performance reflects broader trends: white metals are booming amid tightening supply and rising industrial demand. Rob shifts focus to the macroeconomy, noting the U.S. dollar’s 10% year-to-date drop and the mounting pressures of inflation and debt, now at $37 trillion. With gold outperforming equities and the S&P 500 hitting new highs, the team emphasizes disciplined accumulation and ratio trading as key strategies to navigate this volatile but opportunity-rich market. As Miles puts it, “Gold remains the anchor in the storm, but it’s the white metals turning heads this time around.”
