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Saturday, August 2, 2025

[Axios] Stagflation fears are back [Bloomberg] Fed Governor’s Exit Could Accelerate Trump’s Selection of Next Chair to Succeed Powell [AP] Trump removes official overseeing jobs data after dismal employment report [Reuters] Data credibility fears fueled after Trump orders firing of labor official [NYT] After a Lag, Consumers Begin to Feel the Pinch of Tariffs [NYT] […]

August 1, 2025: Peak Dance Moves

High yield CDS (Credit default swap) prices surged 22.4 this week to 336 bps, the largest weekly move since the (“liberation day”) week of April 4th (62 to 439bps). Friday’s 13 bps jump was the biggest daily increase since May 21st (reports of Israel preparation for strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities). Investment-grade CDS rose four […]

Friday, August 1, 2025

[CNBC] Dow tumbles 400 points after weak jobs report, Trump tariff rollout: Live updates [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Stocks Buckle Under Trump Tariffs; Amazon Slumps: Markets Wrap [CNBC] U.S. job growth slows to 73,000 in July, less than expected [AP] Trump calls on Federal Reserve board to wrest full control of central bank from Fed Chair Powell [Axios] […]

Volatility Strikes Precious Metals

All four major precious metals—gold, silver, platinum, and palladium—experienced notable declines this week thanks to robust economic figures and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, July 30: The price of gold dropped $107 (3.1%) to $3,275, with an additional $54 (1.6%) lost in […]

Tactical Short 2nd Quarter 2025 Recap

Terminal Phase Whipsaw – July 31, 2025   David: Good afternoon. This is David McAlvany. Thank you for participating in our second quarter 2025 recap conference call titled “Terminal Phase Whipsaw.” As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships.  Today, we will review performance. Doug will go […]

Thursday, July 31, 2025

[CNBC] S&P 500 rises after Meta and Microsoft post quarterly beats: Live updates [Yahoo/Bloomberg] US Bond Traders Eye Inflation for Steer on September Rate Cut [AP] Trump seeks to use Canada’s recognition of Palestinian state as leverage in trade talks [Axios] Trump lashes out at Powell over rate decision with stream of insults [Yahoo Finance] […]

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

[CNBC] S&P 500 little changed as traders digest strong GDP report, await Fed decision: Live updates [Reuters] Oil pauses rally as markets weigh Trump’s ultimatum to Russia [AP] Trump announces 25% tariff on India starting Aug. 1, unspecified penalties for buying Russian energy [AP] Trump’s latest tariff deadline is approaching. Here are the trade deals […]

Sizzling Markets: No Acrophobiacs Allowed

Are markets really on fire and how high is too high? This week David and Kevin dig into the dizzying climb in valuations, with the Buffett Ratio screaming to a record‑breaking 210%. We explore what that number really means, why China’s debt machine is running out of steam, and how even a Krispy Kreme meme‑stock craze says […]

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