Even among those who do not share his spiritual beliefs, King Solomon has long been the object of great admiration. He was a national leader who built one of the most fantastically functional and wealthy societies that has ever existed. And very much in that vein, he had a lot to say about giving and receiving correction.
His collection of proverbs for living contains not just one or two admonitions on this subject, but 10 or 20—or more. And they’re the stuff of make-or-break: “Whoever loves discipline loves knowledge, but whoever hates correction is stupid.” “Stern discipline awaits anyone who leaves the path; the one who hates correction will die.”
No shrinking violet, he. And there’s much more. “For lack of guidance a nation falls, but victory is won through many advisers.” Why? Because advisers can correct impulses or plans that are poorly or inadequately thought out. They can correct folly or add to wisdom.
But advice such as Solomon’s has fallen on hard times in America and throughout much of the Western world. Telling a person that they cannot determine their gender or species is not regarded as a mark of caring concern for wrong beliefs that will end in harm, it is regarded as harmful in itself. And heaven help you if you respond “wrongly” to the misbehavior of a child. A woman scorned hath no fury like a corrected child’s mother.
This would be no cause for concern if, as is so often asserted nowadays, truth is completely subjective—if everyone must determine their own truth. But such is not the case. Dr. Fauci is not science. Men cannot get pregnant. History is not whatever one wants to make it. Climate trends are not defined—and certainly not determined—by bitter hatred of humanity. Cats do not have human DNA. And no, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus (sorry, should’ve issued a spoiler alert for that last one given the time of year).
It doesn’t matter how you feel about the above statements. They are true. Yet all of us have at one point or another believed one or more of the untruths they correct—or something else that is untrue. Hopefully a parent or friend or pastor or teacher or even a disinterested bystander set us straight. If so, we’re better for the correction. Our view of reality has been improved, and the better we live in concert with reality, the better our lot in life.
It doesn’t matter who sets us straight, or even how. Some of the best feedback we’ll ever receive comes from our enemies. They see our faults better than our friends do, and they’re not afraid to tell us all about them. It’s a bitter pill to hear a correction from them, but it’s often a medicinal one.
If many investors today would pay attention, they would hear some badly needed corrections. Missing out on some gain today might mean missing out on some pain for 10 or 20 years.
This is not the forum for specific advice, but the content creators below impart some crucial information and principles that, if heeded and worked into an investment plan, would prepare a portfolio for events that are all but guaranteed in the short to intermediate term. These are perilous times, and a word to the wise is sufficient.
Key Takeaways:
- The unintended consequences of tariffs
- Sirens sounding closer as the party gets wilder
- Equities still full speed ahead, but those pesky torpedoes just will not be d*mned
- Use gold right and sleep at night
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Tariffs & Syria: Timing Is Everything
After opening remarks, David and Kevin do a deep dive on tariffs—who wins, who loses, and how the equation changes over time. You might have opinions on tariffs, but chances are you haven’t looked at them in the way the hosts view them this week. With tariffmaster Trump ready to take the helm again, the topic is timely, but David also reemphasizes (after making the point in an earlier Commentary) that much of the work Trump does with tariffs is via threats, not implementation. It’s an important distinction because the effect is entirely different. The hosts also look at the matter of: if tariffs are imposed, what are the rules for making them effective? Also: what are other nations likely to do if tariffs are imposed on them? The hosts then transition to a discussion of timing, particularly as it applies to investing. Investors are piling into the equities markets with wild abandon, but not all of them. Many of the “strong hands” are actually cashing out. What do they know that the rest of us don’t?
Credit Bubble Bulletin: Monitoring for Peak Bubble Excess – Q3 2024 Z.1
Doug looses a tidal wave of data this week to show how immensely non-financial debt has exploded in the US and around the world. However, he asserts, these figures are merely electronic IOUs. World governments “lack the resources to ever pay down ballooning debt loads.” Still, and ultimately unfortunately, this sea of debt boosts everything it touches, including, “incomes, spending and GDP, corporate profits, and extreme market exuberance.” Why concern ourselves with such details when things appear to be going so incredibly well? Doug doesn’t waffle: “We’re in the throes of end-of-super-cycle blowoff excess.” To wax philosophical, Dickens was not just historical in his novel, he was prescient, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…” Clearly the world has seen great opportunity and immense danger exist side by side before. But London’s virtue did not keep Paris from descending into chaos and sustaining great loss.
Hard Asset Insights: Risks and Opportunities
While Doug studies our current situation from the standpoint of bubble dynamics and what are quickly becoming mind-boggling statistics, Morgan looks at theory and expert analysis. That both analysts arrive at the same conclusion should get our attention. Morgan notes the many money managers and CEOs who are selling equities as the herd buys, but also shines a spotlight on key discrepancies in government data. For instance, the household survey is typically far more accurate than the nonfarm payrolls survey, and strongly refutes it this month. “The household employment survey has total national employment at eight million fewer jobs than the establishment survey (a record divergence).” The University of Michigan measures not just employment, but expectations for future employment. Its conclusion? “November may have been a negative inflection point for the labor market.” Morgan also highlights progress among the BRICS nations in coming up with an alternative to the dollar. According to the CEO of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, “the shift away from the dollar in international trade is accelerating, and gold is likely to play a key role in shaping future financial systems.”
Golden Rule Radio: Precious Metals Recap
Tory welcomes colleague Jeff to the studio this week, as Miles and Rob are away. Though the initial chart review of the metals for the week shows generally small gains, that action is part of a larger dynamic that Jeff describes. With the Trump win, the Fed’s recent actions, and the exuberance in equities and cryptocurrencies, most people expected a significant decline in the gold price. It hasn’t happened. An expected pull-back did occur, but it was shorter in duration and lesser in size than anticipated. The hosts discuss being deliberate and having a plan with investing so that over time adjustments can be made that advance the investing goal. This entails knowing why to have gold in your portfolio and using its strength appropriately. They also discuss ratio trading, and what to do if you feel that you’ve been priced out of gold.
