Most of the future here on Third Rock is unknowable, but constituent developments vary in their likelihood of occurrence. The sun’s coming up tomorrow is not certain, but its probability is so high it’s practically 100 percent. But the Dow’s going up tomorrow? Those odds vary depending on who you ask, but they’re certainly less than 100 percent.
In a time of immense change such as the present, many probabilities shift immensely. Variables proliferate. Predicting macro events with any degree of certainty is often little more than a guessing game.
All this to say that making precise predictions about future events is often unwise, but accurately parsing threats, opportunities, and probabilities—along with assets and actions that have positive application to a wide variety of outcomes—is contrastingly wise. The latter is what you’ll find in the publications summarized below.
The study of history, human nature, markets, economics, money, politics, and governance help prepare for an uncertain future. Use the authors’ study of these things, with their compliments, to help prepare for your future.
Key Takeaways:
- Shadow banks cast a material threat
- You can’t get “there” with a bad map
- Central banks: Tack? No! Heave to? No! Time to run before the inflationary wind with bare poles
- Is gold resting for the next surge?
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Shadow Banking Time Bomb
In the October 29, 2025 episode of The McAlvany Weekly Commentary, David and Kevin dive deep into what they call the “shadow banking time bomb,” unpacking how failures at firms like First Brands and Tricolor may foreshadow broader stress in credit markets. David warns that credit cycles, like sand dune races, build momentum until they end in a tumble—this time led by private credit, junk debt, and insurance companies acting like unregulated shadow banks. The conversation links today’s frothy markets, AI-fueled enthusiasm, and record-tight credit spreads to systemic fragility beneath the surface. They analyze rate-cut expectations that prioritize servicing government debt over price stability, highlight the widening K-shaped economy, and caution investors to “take their original stake off the table” while liquidity still flows. From leveraged ETFs to auditor complacency, from quant fund hiccups to gold’s “cooling,” the hosts paint a portrait of exuberance meeting exhaustion—a late-stage market where trust erodes, risks multiply, and prudence (plus a little cash) may again become fashionable.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: Far From It
Doug opens this week’s wrap-up with a wry nod to Jay Powell’s insistence that a December rate cut is “far from” assured—an assertion that sent Treasury yields jumping and exposed deep fractures within the Federal Reserve itself. Doug argues the real problem isn’t Powell’s grip but the Fed’s broken analytical framework, which ignores rampant speculation, AI-fueled asset inflation, and dangerously loose financial conditions. Doug connects Powell’s evasive answers on market bubbles, corporate leverage, and shadow banking risks to a broader institutional blindness that recalls 2007 more than 1998. Still, he highlights how the AI boom—funded by off–balance sheet debt, surging credit issuance, and inflated ratings—could become this era’s dot-com echo. Meanwhile, political pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a restless Trump administration threatens Fed independence as talk of replacing Powell intensifies. Doug sees mounting vulnerabilities—from insurer exposure to private credit to record AI spending—forming a combustible mix. The punchline: policymakers may be playing with matches in an old barn; despite Powell’s calm tone, the situation is anything but normal.
Hard Asset Insights: Happy Halloween, All!
Morgan opens his Halloween note with personal warmth—planning to trick-or-treat with family in Durango—but quickly shifts to a far scarier topic: the Federal Reserve’s growing policy bind. He describes Jay Powell’s “spooky” dilemma as one with no risk-free path—caught between persistent 3% inflation, AI-driven job uncertainty, and a government desperate to finance massive debts. Despite record-high stock prices and a sky-high CAPE ratio of 41, Powell cut rates again, joining a global wave of 313 rate reductions—matching the entire response to the 2008 financial crisis, only this time preemptive rather than reactive. Morgan argues this marks a historic “monetary regime change” where debt monetization and ultra-low real rates eclipse price stability, setting the stage for an era of chronic inflation and currency debasement. As he sees it, policymakers are willing to “move heaven and earth” to stave off crisis, effectively trading fiscal sanity for time. Amid this shift, he predicts gold’s renaissance as the “trustworthy asset” in an untrustworthy age—an old safe haven ready for a new monetary world.
Golden Rule Radio: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and Gold’s Next Move
On this week’s program, Tory, Rob, and Miles dissect the recent dip in gold and silver prices and conclude it’s more a breather than a breakdown—a pause in a marathon, not a collapse at the finish line. They chart gold’s pullback to around $3,930 and silver’s to $47.70, noting that technical indicators like moving averages and RSI point to a healthy consolidation phase in a long-term bull trend. The trio digs into the Fed’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut and the mixed messaging that followed, arguing that persistent 3% inflation, heavy government debt, and global easing keep metals’ long-term case shining bright. They also weigh geopolitical flares—from the Middle East to U.S.-China tensions—and note steady institutional buying through ETFs as a sign of deeper confidence. For investors feeling seasick in volatile markets, the hosts advocate discipline over drama—stick with dollar-cost averaging, avoid chasing peaks, and remember gold’s real job: preserving purchasing power as policy confusion and currency erosion continue their enduring spiral.
