The content creators summarized below continue to emphasize the opportunities and dangers inherent in global economic regime change. Both are immense. As the dollar seems poised to exit stage left–or at least surrender the lead role and assume a supporting one–the logical question for everyone is, what’s next?
There are no crystal balls here, but there are clear and logical attempts to read the signs accurately–and there are many signs. Why is that important? An anecdote might provide the best answer.
This author’s great-grandfather was blinded in a mining accident in 1881. A remarkable man, he later started and/or ran several newspapers, setting the lead type by feel. He also built three homes himself, using tools he developed.
Years after his accident, he astounded his friends and won a handsome bet by guessing the weight to within a pound of a pig being weighed across the street by a butcher. This enhanced the then-prevalent (and still common) belief that the blind had supernatural or superlatively heightened senses or abilities to compensate for the loss of sight.
Great-granddad (GGD) didn’t relate his guess-for-success method then, but years later, in a printed speech still extant today, he did so. Six experienced pig farmers had estimated the pig’s weight before GGD made his guess. GGD simply mentally averaged their estimates, and that was his guess: “I was several pounds closer than any of them. They were astonished. It was wonderful. Most remarkable thing they had ever witnessed. A blind man who could not see at all to guess so accurately at the weight of that hog. Would I explain how I did it? ‘Nothing remarkable about it at all, gentlemen,’ I replied, ‘I can tell by the squeal of a hog how much it will weigh.’
“This is a hog story with a moral to it, and the moral is this. The average judgment of any half dozen men in their own line of business is a good and safe guide by which to arrive at conclusions.”
For the wise, this is a stupendously insightful concept (from a man who could not offer an “outsightful” observation). This author has used the concept to good effect in a number of applications.
How does GGD’s concept apply here? The authors below cite their many expert sources carefully. And they abide by another important concept: the opinions used to average one’s own opinion must be competent in their chosen field. People cited here tend to be those who have long and profitable experience participating in varied market conditions, not government PhDs, feeders at the government trough, or agenda-driven media reporters or commentators. Skewed inputs produce skewed outputs.
And unlike GGD, the below-cited analysts can see, themselves. They are market participants with decades of experience through good times and bad. This gives them personal experience in seeking valuable information, putting it into practice, and providing it to others.
As a consequence, the gold they offer is both physical and verbal. Those who are wise will neglect neither.
Key Takeaways:
- Is AI the biggest bubble ever?
- What happens when no one takes the punch bowl away?
- Is gold in a new trend or a new world?
- Precious metals again taking their rightful place in the global economy
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Late Cycle Dynamics With Doug Noland: Risk Takers In Charge
David sits down with McAlvany Wealth Management’s Tactical Short Manager and MAPS Market Strategist Doug Noland this week. Together, they unpack the titular “late-cycle dynamics” of a supercharged global economy where, as Doug puts it, “risk-takers are in charge.” Doug warns that hedge funds—particularly those parked in the Cayman Islands—now hold more U.S. Treasuries than China or Japan, fueled by extreme leverage that could unravel with alarming speed. The duo traces how bubbles have migrated from tech to mortgages to today’s towering government and corporate credit structures, and why tightening liquidity and cracks in private credit markets could mark the start of unwinding. Doug likens current AI-driven exuberance to the dot‑com mania, suggesting that today’s “arms race” in artificial intelligence may be the largest subprime bubble yet. Throughout, they offer insights on complacent markets, fragile leverage, precious metals as “end‑game” protection, and the systemic risks baked into decades of easy money. It’s an illuminating tour through finance’s late innings—equal parts cautionary tale and economic detective story.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: The Question
Doug begins this week’s wrap-up by unpacking what he calls “The Question”—whether OpenAI’s astonishing $1.4 trillion in spending commitments can coexist with its relatively modest revenues. Using that tension as a lens, he widens the frame to examine the larger “AI arms race,” likening today’s exuberance to Japan’s late‑1980s property mania and America’s dot‑com blow‑off. Doug sees OpenAI as emblematic of a world running on “terminal‑phase excess”—lavish projects, fragile financing, and a faith that liquidity will never dry up. He connects this to rising credit stress, the First Brands bankruptcy, and echoes of past crises where Wall Street’s alchemy turned risky loans into “safe” money until reality returned. From hedge‑fund leverage in Treasuries to the vast “shadow banking” web now propping up markets, Doug paints a system stretched by speculative leverage and political interference—especially as the Trump administration eyes control of monetary levers. Rooted in decades of bubble watching, his warning is clear: every era of easy money ends the same way—booms don’t fade for lack of enthusiasm, but from the unbearable weight of their own excess.
Hard Asset Insights: A Buying Opportunity for the Patient
Morgan takes readers from the Mississippi’s banks to the heart of global finance, arguing that mounting “funding stress” in U.S. markets signals a déjà vu of 2019’s repo troubles—and perhaps the nearing end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening. As the secured overnight financing rate climbs above interest on reserves, Morgan sees deficits once again “crowding out” the U.S. banking system, foreshadowing renewed balance sheet expansion and, with it, more inflation and a shrinking dollar. Drawing on insights from thinkers like Joseph Wang and Rabobank’s Michael Every, he contends the moment marks not just another “debasement trade” for gold, but a profound global monetary regime shift away from the post‑1971 petrodollar era toward a world where gold is remonetized as a neutral reserve asset. From China’s ambitions for a gold‑based yuan to the U.S.’s quiet reassessment of dollar hegemony, Morgan suggests that gold’s role is being quietly rewritten. For now, he concludes, every market pullback looks like what patient investors dream of—a golden buying opportunity.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold’s Global Takeover
In this week’s Golden Rule Radio, Tory, Rob, and Miles unpack what they call gold’s “global takeover,” as record international demand—driven by BRICS countries and surging central‑bank buying—reshapes the world’s financial landscape. While gold held steady near $3,987 an ounce and silver flirted with $50, the hosts note that the real action is geopolitical: Asia is building its own gold exchanges in Shanghai and St. Petersburg, signaling a shift away from the dollar’s dominance. Central banks, they point out, now collectively hold more gold than the U.S. Treasury for the first time since 1996, much of it quietly accumulated off the record—a hint that the monetary ground is shifting beneath our feet. The team also highlights silver’s growing role, with India adopting it as collateral and Western investors returning via ETFs and bullion purchases. Though Western markets still seem distracted by politics, the hosts argue that prudent investors should recognize what global policymakers already know: gold and silver are once again the bedrock of financial stability—and smart money is moving accordingly.
