Credit Bubble Bulletin

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[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stocks Hold Steady After Four-Day Rally: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks rise on Fed easing hopes, yen locked in intervention zone [AP] Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty [Politico] Americans are buckling under medical bills. It could get worse. [Yahoo/Bloomberg] High Coffee Prices Are Here to Stay for Longer Despite US Tariff Cuts [Reuters] Putin says it's senseless to sign documents with 'illegitimate' Ukrainian leadership [Reuters] Taiwan says it has discussed with US arms purchases for extra defence budget [Yahoo/Reuters] China's tech giants move AI model training overseas to access Nvidia chips, FT reports [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Vanke Dollar Bonds Tumble to Record Lows as Crisis Worsens [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Warns of Bubble Risk in Booming Humanoid Robotics Industry [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Warns of Nuclear Conflict Risks After Trump Orders Testing [Politico] Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia [Reuters] Bird flu virus could risk pandemic worse than COVID if it mutates, France's Institut Pasteur says [Bloomberg] UK Market Declines Offer Reality Check on Post-Budget Relief [Bloomberg] Vanke’s Loan Request Rejected by at Least Two Chinese Banks [NYT] Irresistible Deals Put Them in Debt. Now They’re Trying to Manage Their Overspending. [NYT] As Prices Pinch, Bessent Looks for Ways to Mollify Wary Consumers [WSJ] Corporate Dealmaking Is Getting Bigger and Bolder Under Trump [WSJ] Where Trump Sees Deals, Russia and China See a Chance to Disrupt U.S. Alliances [WSJ] Vanke’s Bid to Delay Bond Payment Sparks Selloff in Chinese Developers [WSJ] BOJ Rate Hikes Must Proceed With Caution, Board Member Says [FT] China’s tech giants take AI model training offshore to tap Nvidia chips [FT] Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle [FT] The US is deregulating banks. Will the rest of the world follow? [FT] China Vanke’s bonds plunge on fears of waning state support
[Yahoo/Bloomberg] Global Stocks Hold Steady After Four-Day Rally: Markets Wrap [Reuters] Stocks rise on Fed easing hopes, yen locked in intervention zone [AP] Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty [Politico] Americans are buckling under medical bills. It could get worse. [Yahoo/Bloomberg] High Coffee Prices Are Here to Stay for Longer Despite US Tariff Cuts [Reuters] Putin says it's senseless to sign documents with 'illegitimate' Ukrainian leadership [Reuters] Taiwan says it has discussed with US arms purchases for extra defence budget [Yahoo/Reuters] China's tech giants move AI model training overseas to access Nvidia chips, FT reports [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Vanke Dollar Bonds Tumble to Record Lows as Crisis Worsens [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Warns of Bubble Risk in Booming Humanoid Robotics Industry [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Warns of Nuclear Conflict Risks After Trump Orders Testing [Politico] Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia [Reuters] Bird flu virus could risk pandemic worse than COVID if it mutates, France's Institut Pasteur says [Bloomberg] UK Market Declines Offer Reality Check on Post-Budget Relief [Bloomberg] Vanke’s Loan Request Rejected by at Least Two Chinese Banks [NYT] Irresistible Deals Put Them in Debt. Now They’re Trying to Manage Their Overspending. [NYT] As Prices Pinch, Bessent Looks for Ways to Mollify Wary Consumers [WSJ] Corporate Dealmaking Is Getting Bigger and Bolder Under Trump [WSJ] Where Trump Sees Deals, Russia and China See a Chance to Disrupt U.S. Alliances [WSJ] Vanke’s Bid to Delay Bond Payment Sparks Selloff in Chinese Developers [WSJ] BOJ Rate Hikes Must Proceed With Caution, Board Member Says [FT] China’s tech giants take AI model training offshore to tap Nvidia chips [FT] Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle [FT] The US is deregulating banks. Will the rest of the world follow? [FT] China Vanke’s bonds plunge on fears of waning state support
[CNBC] Stock futures rise after Dow notches third winning session: Live updates [Bloomberg] Gold Rises as Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Grow and Banks Stay Bullish [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Nvidia’s Stock Is Sinking as Doubts About Its AI Dominance Grow [AP] Fewer Americans sought unemployment benefits last week as layoffs remain low [Yahoo/Bloomberg] US Home-Purchase Applications Surge to Highest Since 2023 [CNBC] AI data center ‘frenzy’ is pushing up your electric bill — here’s why [Axios] Trump admin hikes national parks prices by $170 for international tourists [AP] UK’s Treasury chief delivers budget following unprecedented leak that outlined all her plans [AP] China’s pressure on Japan is a familiar tactic that could last for some time [CNBC] Taiwan’s President Lai lashes out against Beijing, pledging $40 billion in additional defense budget [Reuters] Exclusive: US peace plan for Ukraine drew from Russian document, sources say [Reuters] Russia says leak of Witkoff call recording is unacceptable, amounts to hybrid warfare [Bloomberg] Looming US Power Crunch to Impair AI Abilities, Schneider Says [Bloomberg] UK Bonds, Pound Whipsaw as Investors Unconvinced by Budget Plans [Bloomberg] Dudley: A Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Is Bringing Its Own Problems [Bloomberg] Lutnick, Pomp SPAC Deals Are Put to the Test by Crypto Crash [Bloomberg] China Property Crisis Thrust Back Into Spotlight by Vanke Plunge [Bloomberg] Japan to Issue Over $73.5 Billion in New Bonds to Fund Stimulus [Bloomberg] Stavridis: The Underwater Cables That Carry the Internet Are in Trouble [NYT] Is Trump’s Plan to Remake the Fed Coming Into Focus? [WSJ] Traders Are Flooding Markets With Risky Bets. Robinhood’s CEO Is Their Cult Hero. [WSJ] It Really Is Possible to Spend Too Much on AI [WSJ] U.K. Treasury Chief Says Budget Measures Will Tackle Debt, Inflation [FT] Voice trading makes a comeback in $30tn Treasury market [FT] China is making trade impossible
[CNBC] U.S. stocks are little changed after tech rally boosts stocks: Live updates [CNBC] Nvidia shares fall 3% on report Meta will use Google AI chips [Yahoo/Reuters] Rising energy costs lift US producer prices in September [CNBC] Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports [Yahoo/Reuters] US retail sales miss expectations in September [CNBC] Bessent says there’s a ‘very good chance’ Trump names new Fed chair before Christmas [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Alphabet’s AI Chips, Gemini Model Position It to Rival Nvidia [Reuters] How a US home insurance fix is becoming a problem [Axios] U.S. meets Russia in UAE after "understanding" reached with Ukraine [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Xi Puts Biggest US-China Flashpoint Back on Agenda in Trump Call [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Trump Moves to Preserve Xi Truce While Reassuring Ally Japan [AP] Russian attacks kill at least 7 in Ukraine as talks on peace plan continue [Bloomberg] Private Credit’s Sketchy Marks Get Warning Shot From Wall Street’s Top Cop [Bloomberg] Private Debt Defaults Set to Climb as Middle-Market Firms Wobble [Bloomberg] US Homesellers Pull Stale Listings Off Market as Interest Fades [Bloomberg] Chinese Developer Vanke’s Bonds Plunge as Debt Concerns Grow [Bloomberg] Russia Bombards Kyiv Hours After Trump Voices Hope for Ukraine Deal [Bloomberg] Japan Slams China Letter to UN as ‘Erroneous’ in Its Own Missive [NYT] $10 Billion and Counting: Trump Administration Snaps Up Stakes in Private Firms [NYT] Britain’s Most Unpopular Chancellor in Decades Faces Another Big Test [NYT] China and Japan, With Trump in the Middle, Stoke an Existential Showdown [WSJ] Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut [WSJ] Speaker Johnson Warns White House GOP Is Wary of Trump’s Healthcare Push [WSJ] When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It [WSJ] ‘Sovereign AI’ Takes Off as Countries Seek to Avoid Overdependence on Superpowers [WSJ] China’s Xi Calls Trump in Unusual Move to Discuss Taiwan, Ukraine [WSJ] How the U.S. Drafted a Russia-Friendly Peace Plan for Ukraine [FT] ‘Scraping for crumbs’: Americans squeezed by affordability crisis [FT] Russia signals it could reject modified US peace plan for Ukraine [FT] Britain’s Budget woes illustrate the threat to Europe’s social contract [FT] Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Budget
[CNBC] S&P 500 rises as market attempts rebound on holiday-shortened week: Live updates [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Big Tech’s AI Debt Wave Is Threatening to Swamp Credit Markets [Reuters] Record US Black Friday crowds to find fewer bargains amid high prices [Yahoo/Reuters] Fed's Waller: December cut is appropriate, but action in January more uncertain given coming data [Axios] Big-name AI founders could hit a wall [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Bessent Says Health-Care Announcement Coming This Week [Axios] U.S., Ukraine say they made "meaningful progress" on Trump's peace plan [Axios] How Trump's 28-point plan for Ukraine shocked the world [Axios] Airlines cancel flights to Venezuela after FAA warning on military activity [Bloomberg] Blue Owl Is the Sum of All Investor Fears [Bloomberg] Amazon Data Center Tally Tops 900 Amid AI Frenzy, Documents Show [Bloomberg] SPAC Stocks Are Back in Risky Financial ‘Turducken’ [Bloomberg] Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess [Bloomberg] China Uses Japan Spat to Pressure World to Pick Sides on Taiwan [NYT] Why Crypto’s Slide Is Rattling Wall Street [NYT] Why Europe and the U.S. Are Still Haggling on Trade [NYT] Trade Chaos Causes Businesses to Rethink Their Relationship With the U.S. [WSJ] AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center [WSJ] How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending [WSJ] White House Hails Progress on Ukraine Talks, But Zelensky Is Cautious [WSJ] Japan’s New Leader Infuriated Beijing. She Isn’t Backing Down. [FT] What big bond investors want from the UK Budget [FT] Global fund groups to reach $200tn in assets by 2030, PwC says
[Reuters] Wall St Week Ahead Black Friday puts focus on consumer spending for rocky markets [CNBC] ‘Stakes are high.’ With shutdown over, airlines predict record numbers of travelers this Thanksgiving [Yahoo/Bloomberg] US Retail Sales Are Proving Resilient While Risks Mount [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Private equity firms flood junk debt market to pay themselves [Reuters] Exclusive: DOGE 'doesn't exist' with eight months left on its charter [AP] Ukraine and Western allies meet to discuss a US peace plan that has sparked alarm in Kyiv and Europe [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Carney Says World Can Move on Without US, Stresses New Ties [Reuters] China says Japan sent 'shocking' wrong signal on Taiwan [Axios] Fractious UN climate talks end with no direct push on fossil fuels in deal [Bloomberg] Nvidia Didn’t Save the Market. What’s Next for the AI Trade? [Bloomberg] Secret US-Russia Talks Led to Peace Plan That Blindsided Ukraine [Bloomberg] Japan to Deploy Missiles to Island Near Taiwan, Minister Says [WSJ] Wall Street Goes on a Wild Ride: ‘No One Was Expecting This’ [WSJ] Everyone Is Talking About the ‘Affordability Crisis.’ It Can’t Be Solved. [WSJ] Trump Calls Obamacare Insurers Fat and Rich. Investors See Them as Vulnerable. [WSJ] Americans Are on a Year-End Shopping Spree [WSJ] Trump Says Ukraine Peace Plan Isn’t Final After Criticism It Favors Russia [Ft] Lawmakers say US secretary of state rowed back on Ukraine peace plan [FT] Russia exploits western polarisation to ‘split us up’, warns top general
Tactical Short 4th Quarter 2022 Recap
Q4 Review - 2023 Preview

Thursday, January 19, 2023 – 4:00pm Eastern / 2:00pm Mountain

David McAlvany
Doug Noland
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