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Gold moved ever closer to the $4,000 milestone this week, climbing up 3.5%. Silver surged a staggering 8.3% and is approaching $50. Platinum and palladium also joined the rally, both breaking through key resistance levels before slightly pulling back.
Even amid a strong week for precious metals, the S&P rose 1.7% and the dollar held steady, showcasing strong market resilience despite concerns over the government shutdown.
Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, October 1:
The price of gold is up 3.5% at $3,865 as of recording. Intraweek, gold did just touch that $3,900 level.
The price of silver is up 8.3%, sitting at $47.45. It’s closing in on that fabled $50 per ounce level.
Platinum is up 5.7% sitting at $1,570. The white metal was a little bit higher in the week, up over 9% and it did break above $1,600.
Palladium is up about 4% to $1,270. At one point, platinum’s sister metal was up over 8% as it pushed up as high as $1,325 earlier in the week.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 is up 1.7% this week, currently sitting at 6,715.
The US dollar index is about flat, down just slightly from a week earlier and sitting at 97.75.
Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Surge
Precious metals posted one of their best weeks and strongest quarters in recent memory. Gold is up 3.5% this week, reaching as high as $3,900 per ounce, with a quarterly gain of 15.5%—the majority of which has occurred in just the last six weeks.
Silver outperformed gold, up 8.3% this week and a remarkable 31% for the quarter, now trading around $47.45 per ounce and closing in on the psychologically important $50 barrier. Year-to-date, silver is up 63%.
Meanwhile, platinum climbed 5.7% this week, and palladium followed with a 4% gain. This marks the sixth consecutive week of higher finishes for the metals, a trend we would have been pleased to see over several years, not just weeks.
Gold/Silver Ratio Opportunities
Just a few months ago, it took over 100 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. Now, that number has dropped to 81, marking a 23-point move and demonstrating silver’s outperformance.
Historically, the 50-year average for the gold/silver ratio sits closer to 62. For investors, this suggests substantial room for silver to continue closing the gap relative to gold, especially if silver breaks decisively above $50.
Our core position remains that silver is most valuable as a tool to ultimately add more gold to portfolios—trading silver for gold when ratios return toward historic averages can be a strategy for increasing overall ounces without further capital investment.
Physical Demand, Tight Markets, and Central Banks
We believe the current rally is not driven merely by retail buying, but by robust and persistent physical demand, particularly from central banks and sovereign entities. This marks the fifth consecutive year that physical silver demand has outpaced mine supply.
Industrial demand for silver is also surging—especially in sectors like AI/technology, solar, and defense. Central banks now reportedly hold 25% gold in their reserve allocations, up from historical norms of 5%-10%.
Large financial institutions such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have recommended private investors raise gold allocations to at least 20%. These allocations are being driven by concerns about currency weakness, global de-dollarization trends, and the desire for hard asset protection amid geopolitical risks.
U.S. Dollar, Interest Rates, and Macro Headwinds
Though the U.S. dollar has stabilized after a multi-year period of volatility, rising less than 1% this quarter, precious metals continue their ascent.
The government shutdown was largely shrugged off by equities and did not dent the metals’ advance. It’s important to note that with the Federal Reserve prioritizing employment over aggressive inflation control, interest rates are likely to decline in the coming months, which should further support metals.
This combination of a steady-to-softer dollar, dovish monetary policy, and global central bank flows into gold bodes well for continued strength in the metals sector.
Key Levels and Strategic Outlook
From a technical perspective, silver is nearly 34% above its 200-day moving average, and gold is up 22% above its own.
Silver’s next psychological barrier is the $50 mark; we expect strong resistance here, based on historical trading behavior, before the rally could eventually push toward $60, $75, or even higher.
Gold, meanwhile, could move up another $150 over the next several weeks, potentially challenging or surpassing the $4,000 mark.
Portfolio decisions should be driven more by ratios and relative value than by dollar figures. When ratio targets hit (for example, 60:1 or below), that has historically been an opportune moment to start converting silver holdings back into gold, locking in gains and increasing gold ounces for the long term.
Double Your Gold Ounces
Considering a ratio trade between gold and silver? We can help you determine the best time to make your move. The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years experience investing in the precious metals market. We are happy to speak with you about your goals on a no-obligation, complimentary consultation. Reach out to us at 800-525-9556.
