The albatross of government debt is fixed securely around President Trump’s neck, though the vast majority of that debt was incurred before or between his presidencies. To be sure, his hands are not clean on the matter. He has incurred much new debt to fund his growth and security mandates, but his approach to the matter is far different than his predecessors’. Most of them advocated some variation on Einstein’s supposed definition of insanity: doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
Without passing judgment on Trump’s likelihood of success, the aforementioned is brought up simply to reaffirm that we are no longer in Kansas. Though the American system is not new, the circumstances in which it is being re-instituted are.
Trump essentially took the bridge on the Titanic one minute before impact, ordered all the passengers onto one side of the ship, slammed the rudder to its limit, leaned the ship over to the waterline, and barked “All ahead full!” If the ship still goes down, he will bear full responsibility, but this writer is not omniscient enough to say that such a failure will be indicative of bad policy. Icebergs and debt should be avoided early, not at the last minute.
None of that matters now. To switch metaphors for a moment: two roads diverged in a wood, and America took the one that served its elites. That has made all the difference. What matters now is where we go from here. That largely depends on whether Trump’s evasive maneuvers are good and strong enough, and in time. In case they’re not all—all—of those things, it might help to have a lifeboat handy. In finances, that lifeboat is a shiny yellow metal. Consider that as you read the synopses below.
Key Takeaways:
- This isn’t inflation’s first rodeo
- The President picked a poison, and it smells a bit like inflation
- Nothing to see in the metals markets—yet
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: When Inflation Leads To Decapitation
David and Kevin kick things off by tying inflation to a political breaking point, using the French Revolution as an indicator of what monetary disorder can do when it becomes a crisis of everyday life. They highlight how, over time, monetary supply expanded dramatically in France (via assignats) before the currency collapsed—an argument that “inflation isn’t just a monetary event,” but also a moral and social one that erodes people’s purchasing power and agency. Turning to today, David points to household stress (falling savings and rising credit issues) alongside a “K-shaped” economy where the upper half still leans on asset gains while the lower half shows recessionary strain. From there, he links liquidity to markets: AI and semiconductor spending attract massive capital, but the cycle may be vulnerable to overcapacity, overstretched valuations, and leverage (including margin debt and leveraged ETFs). Corporate borrowing to fund data centers while free cash flow swings negative adds fragility. The episode closes with a cautious nod toward precious metals as “insurance” and “ballast,” plus insider buying among miners as a hopeful footnote.
Hard Asset Insights: Inflation Is Policy
Morgan sets the stage by picking up from the administration’s talk of “Hamiltonian economics,” tracing it to Jamieson Greer’s Davos remarks and then to Treasury Secretary Bessent’s emphasis on reshoring, reindustrialization, tariffs, and—crucially—trade on terms tied to national security rather than mere low-cost convenience. Lewis argues that in a post-1971 dollar reserve system, this shift likely implies inflation as policy, possibly including some form of (functional) yield curve control to keep real Treasury yields from spiking and turning a debt-load into a spiral. He adds a “choose-your-trap” framing: if an AI bubble pops, you might get deflation first, which still pressures policymakers to “save the Treasury market,” but gold could benefit either way—especially if rising real rates collide with a reserve-currency issuer that can’t afford them. The note ends with a quick weekend market scoreboard (stocks down modestly; gold/silver/platinum/palladium lower; oil up; dollar slightly weaker; 10-year yields around 4.55%) before signing off.
Golden Rule Radio: Gold’s Quiet Week
Tory, Miles, and Rob kick off the episode with a “nothing to see here—yet” gibe: gold and silver have been mostly treading water, showing small price swings but ending the week nearly unchanged, while platinum and palladium actually put in stronger performances and the S&P got perilously close to an all-time high. The message is that even during a lull the long game remains the same—long-term fundamentals like rising government debt and ongoing fiscal deficits continue to provide support for precious metals. In other words, this isn’t a celebration of stagnation; it’s more like a pause in the music before the next verse. The hosts frame the week’s consolidation as an opportunity: rather than chase every blip, investors can use the calmer period to increase their portfolio ahead of gold’s “next move.” The episode closes with the simple, practical takeaway that market pauses can be useful—so long as you’re prepared for when momentum returns.
