If you treat the fact that gold’s dollar price never goes to zero as a meaningless aphorism, you’ve missed the point entirely. Yes, its dollar price can vary immensely, and go very low (or very high) at times. It sold for little more than $250 in 1999, for instance. Circumstances—and human response to those circumstances—can deeply affect gold’s dollar price.
But $250 is not zero. One person of this writer’s knowledge got a second mortgage in 1999 and sunk all the proceeds into gold. Twelve years later, he looked pretty smart. That’s because gold’s value had not changed. Only the perception of it had changed. And that change in perception caused the dollar price of gold to increase by over 660%. The investor in question knew that gold had become severely undervalued, and acted on that knowledge.
In the publications summarized below, the McAlvany analysts carefully lay out the factors that militate for and against a significantly higher repricing of gold. They have immense experience in precious metals markets, as well as markets in general. They know that governmental folly tends to make gold’s dollar price rise, but they also know that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Consequently, what you’ll see is factual reporting, experienced and knowledgeable analysis, and the advocacy of prudent, cautious strategy. Spoiler alert: they believe that lower gold is possible in the near future. Even more importantly, they believe much higher gold is likely in the years to come. Still, they won’t advise you to get a second mortgage and sink it all into gold. Details matter—and you’ll find them in abundance in the publications summarized below.
Key Takeaways:
- AI’s commodity dependency
- World Bank loaning to inflation-impacted countries
- Seasonality is trumping fundamentals, but seasonality is only seasonal
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Buy Hard Assets To Profit On AI
David and Kevin kick off by putting today’s AI “front-end” hype under a microscope—especially the way AI can produce radically inconsistent responses—so investors should resist autopilot and remember that context matters. They argue that the more durable AI opportunity may be “HALO”—heavy assets with low obsolescence—framing commodities and other hard, capital-intensive inputs as pick-and-shovel plays behind the massive spending cycle. From copper, aluminum, steel, and energy constraints (including grid electricity limits and financing fragility from rising debt issuance) to the risk of overbuilding and compressed margins, they connect AI to older infrastructure dependency. David contrasts value and momentum investing as “worth today” versus “what it could become,” warning about value traps and momentum overpaying—while emphasizing margin of error, patience, and diversification (even when precious metals dominate many portfolios). They also flag market concentration risk, cite consumer and corporate profit cycle signals, and end with a rallying idea: in a world of imagination, buy the real things—and follow the checklist.
Hard Asset Insights: On the Road Again
Morgan notes that he is traveling this week, and then gets right to the point. He calls the recent precious-metals selloff a “correction inside a still-powerful” precious metals bull market, pointing to the March drop in U.S. Treasuries (the largest since at least 2023) as tied to Hormuz-related jumps in oil and food prices and a resulting global liquidity scramble. Morgan expects selling pressure to persist until oil and food prices retreat or until crisis funding—via institutions like the World Bank—eases the pressure on cash-strapped emerging markets. He links the loop: more dollar borrowing feeds inflation, which forces emerging markets to sell Treasuries, which pushes Treasury yields higher, which then pressures Western fiscal strains—potentially nudging policymakers to act more aggressively to “save the bond market.” After citing a sentiment/chart reset (COMEX gold open interest at 13+ year lows), he closes with his customary weekly performance snapshot across major indices and commodities.
Golden Rule Radio: Seasonal Weakness Meets Strong Demand
Tory, Miles, and Rob frame the episode with a simple market read: despite quiet conditions, precious metals are seeing resilience—gold and silver rising just over 1%, while platinum and palladium slip a bit, hinting at some softness in industrial metals demand. They note that equities keep marching upward and the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, while the dollar modestly edged up to around 99.5—two factors that can usually pressure metals, yet haven’t changed the their bigger picture. The key theme is seasonality versus fundamentals: June is historically one of gold’s weaker months, and Miles explains why seasonality will likely control the immediate future, but the hosts argue long-term fundamentals for physical gold demand remain the bigger driver. They discuss the impact the Iran war is having on the metals, as well as why Americans continue to avoid them even as the rest of the world—especially China—stockpiles them aggressively.
