Seldom have there been so many and such strong conflicting signals driving events and markets. Morgan covers a serious challenge to American security in the world, even as Doug covers the party going on in markets. The Golden Rule Radio crew highlight bumps in the road for precious metals, even as Hard Asset Insights lays out the case for gold and miners for years to come. It’s a schizophrenic world driven by amazing and powerful developments. If you’re having trouble keeping up, you’re not alone. But in the publications below, you’ll find uncommon breadth and depth of insight and analysis week after week. Be sure to add one or several to your list of must-read or -hear publications.
Key Takeaways:
- When sarcasm and investment advice collide
- The party’s on, and the dance floor’s open
- When military strategy drives investment strategy
- “Too Late” doesn’t want to inflate, to date
The McAlvany Weekly Commentary: Sizzling Markets: No Acrophobiacs Allowed
David and Kevin dive into the recent strong market action in this week’s Commentary, exploring the record-breaking 210% Buffett Ratio and what it signals about valuations that seem to defy gravity. With a light touch of irony, they dissect the exuberance in meme stocks, junk bonds, and over-leveraged crypto investments, painting a picture of a financial system seemingly fueled by “free money” and optimism. They spotlight China’s troubling debt-to-growth disparity, likening its relentless production to bailing water with too small a bucket, and discuss how the country’s supply-side focus could lead to painful corrections. Gold’s recent stubborn strength is framed as a vote of no confidence in the status quo, with central banks signaling awareness of deeper structural shifts. Along the way, they weave in historical context—from the 1970s abandonment of the gold standard to the present credit experiment—and end with a reminder that while bulls thrive in the moment, bears may yet have their day.
Credit Bubble Bulletin: Peak Dance Moves
Doug dives into a whirlwind week of market turbulence, beginning with a surge in high-yield CDS prices—up 22.4 points to 336 bps, the largest weekly move since April—highlighting the fragility of today’s credit environment. Treasury yields saw their sharpest one-day decline in years as weak jobs data, compounded by drastic revisions, shocked markets and fueled expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. Doug underscores the precarious dynamics of “peak dance moves,” where levered speculation and the “Trump put” have turned markets into a manic party, spiking the punch with excess liquidity. AI mania, leveraged loans, and junk bonds continue to overheat, while systemic risks loom in the form of surging derivatives hedging and precarious short-term debt strategies. Doug also explores the geopolitical backdrop, including Trump’s tariff escalations, energy deals, and heightened tensions with China and Russia, all of which add to market instability. The message is clear: the rave may rage on for now, but when the music stops, the hangover could be historic.
Hard Asset Insights: Adapt to the New Set of Rules
Morgan takes the lead this week, guiding us through the market’s summer roller coaster ride, where early optimism gave way to turbulence. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hit record highs before reversing sharply as the VIX soared 36.5%, signaling a spike in fear. Gold showed resilience, but the broader precious metals complex stumbled, while copper took a dramatic 23.65% hit after tariff-related policy shifts. The week’s turning point came on Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell held rates steady but delivered hawkish signals, prioritizing inflation control over employment. Markets, primed for rate cuts, reeled as Powell hinted at potential hikes instead, only to be jolted again Friday by weaker-than-expected payroll data. Morgan zooms out, emphasizing the U.S.’s urgent need for re-industrialization amid mounting national security concerns, from rare earth dominance to military supply chain vulnerabilities. With inflationary industrial policy likely to dominate, gold emerges as the ultimate safe haven in a world adapting to “new rules.” As Morgan notes, the shift has begun—those playing by the old rules risk being left behind.
Golden Rule Radio: Volatility Strikes Precious Metals
Tory and Miles take center stage this week on Golden Rule Radio, unpacking the sharp declines across all four major precious metals—gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Gold led the headlines with a $107 (3.1%) drop, while silver fell over 5%, and platinum and palladium saw even steeper losses at 8.75% and 7.5%, respectively. The hosts trace these moves to robust economic data, including a surprising 3% GDP growth figure, which bolstered the dollar and equity markets while putting pressure on safe-haven assets. Tory highlights the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, with Chair Powell signaling a “wait and see” approach, dampening hopes for imminent rate cuts. Miles shifts the focus to the broader implications of a strengthening dollar amid growing global de-dollarization trends, emphasizing the long-term role of gold as a reserve asset. The duo also dives into the privacy and stability offered by physical gold compared to digital assets like CBDCs and stablecoins, which come with surveillance concerns. Wrapping up, they stress the importance of a disciplined “buy the dips” strategy, underscoring the resilience of institutional gold buying and its role as a hedge in an era of monetary and geopolitical uncertainty.
