Podcast: Play in new window
Markets remain relatively quiet following the volatility sparked by last week’s FED announcement. Gold added another $110 to trade just under $4,600 after blowing through resistance last week, while silver, platinum and palladium all pushed higher alongside it. Copper, meanwhile, printed a fresh all-time high — a signal the economy is running hot. We breakdown the fundamentals driving gold and silver to predict how the metals will move over the next few months.
Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, August 26:
The price of gold is up about 2.5% ($110) at $4,592, sitting just below the $4,600 mark.
The price of silver is up about 2.5% ($1.55) at $68.25 — still up roughly 25% from its July low.
Platinum is up about 2% ($35), sitting at $1,830.
Palladium is essentially flat, sitting at $1,320.
Looking over at the paper markets…
The S&P 500 is up 0.3% (21 points) to 7,687, though it looks to be sliding.
The US dollar index is up about 0.5%, sitting at 99.15 — a bounce inside what still looks like a downtrend.
And a notable mover outside the precious metals: copper hit an all-time high of $6.73 per pound.
Gold Tests the $4,700 Ceiling
Gold jumped roughly $300 an ounce after last week’s Fed announcement, blowing through the upper band of resistance before running into a ceiling near $4,700.
There are a few reasons that level matters. First, any “double-zero” price is psychological — traders cluster bets there. Second, $4,700 acted as resistance back in early May before gold rolled over toward $3,900. Third, it lines up with a reverse 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline that ran from about $5,180 at the start of March down to the roughly $3,950 low at the end of June.
When a handful of indicators stack up at the same price, it’s no surprise the market pauses there. So don’t be shocked to see gold back off in the short term — especially with Fed Chair Warsh likely to walk back last week’s message at Jackson Hole this weekend. We’d watch support around $4,400, with a deeper dip toward $4,200 possible but unlikely.
The more important question isn’t why gold dipped today; markets move up and down. It’s whether that ~$3,950 June low was the bottom. Was this year’s pullback a correction inside the long-term bull market that began in 1972 — or the tail of the short-term bear that started in March? The next few weeks should be telling. Either way, the takeaway for a long-term holder is the same: don’t chase spikes into resistance. Pullbacks toward support are where you add.
Silver Hits Resistance Just Below $70
If you’ve been tracking metals, you might be wondering why $70 keeps acting as a barrier for silver. Part of it is simply that it’s a round number. But the bigger reason is that $70 has repeatedly served as a floor, a ceiling, and a turning point over the last six months — from the floor set during the China trading shutdown back in late January, to turning points in March and April, to the breakdown point in early June.
The short-term bear market began in mid-May near $87–$88, then fell to just under $55. Silver has since reversed back up into the zone between its 38.2% retracement (around $67.50) and its 50% retracement (around $71.75) — in other words, right on top of $70. Getting decisively through the $67–$72 band is the key step. Gold already cleared its corresponding band and hasn’t looked back; if silver can push through $72–$73, the field opens up and a run toward $85 could come quickly.
There’s a macro overlay worth watching too. Silver’s favorite environment is when GDP is expanding and inflation is disinflating. July’s dip in oil prices produced exactly that backdrop and helped kick off the current 25% rally. If August and September inflation re-accelerates instead, silver may stall at $70. A return to those “growth up, inflation cooling” conditions would tilt the odds toward a breakout. Watch the band — a clean break is the signal.
Dr. Copper and the Fed Question
Copper just hit an all-time high of $6.73 per pound. Not long ago it was trading in the $3.75 range, so this is a strong signal that the economy is ramping up and running hot.
That heat is exactly what’s fueling talk of a possible Fed rate hike in September, which is why all eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering this weekend. Copper’s message and the rate-hike chatter are two sides of the same coin: an economy hot enough to keep the Fed cautious, and hot enough to keep real-asset demand alive.
Weaponized Dollar Puts Floor Under Gold
Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that any entity facilitating money laundering on behalf of Iran will be removed from the US dollar system. While stopping short of triggering sanctions immediately, he framed it instead as a warning shot to give bad actors a chance to change course.
hina quickly warned it could retaliate, because it depends on dollar access to keep its export-driven economy running. But here’s the longer-term consequence: the more the US weaponizes its currency — as it did with Russia, and now increasingly with China — the more it motivates those countries to build workarounds and accelerate de-dollarization. Layer in fresh tariff friction with Canada, and you have the kind of geopolitical stress that puts a durable floor under gold.
Remember, it was the tariff scare of spring 2025 that ignited this bull cycle in the first place, with gold leading as the money metal while silver lagged. This is structurally gold-positive, and it supports the bid regardless of short-term Fed headlines.
$40 Trillion Deficit Makes Headlines
The $40 trillion deficit made national and international headlines this week. Stanley Druckenmiller used a Wall Street Journal op-ed to make a pointed argument: stop managing Treasury yields through the Treasury’s buyback program and Fed money printing, and fix the actual problem — Washington’s spending.
Yields function like a credit report on the United States. The deeper into debt the country goes, the higher those bond yields want to climb, and that’s simply the market pricing risk. Trying to control that signal rather than address the primary deficit dilutes the dollar without solving anything. If Washington actually tackled the deficit, you’d likely see the dollar rally and gold pull back — a healthier long-term outcome for the currency and the economy. Until that happens, ongoing currency dilution keeps the strategic case for real, non-counterparty assets firmly intact.
Your Next Move
This is a “stay on course” week: let gold digest its run into resistance, watch silver’s $70 line of scrimmage, and treat any pullback as an inventory opportunity. What you do before the volatility matters far more than what you do in the middle of it.
Need support planning your next purchase? The team at McAlvany Precious Metals has a collective 75 years experience investing in the precious metals market. We are happy to speak with you about your goals on a no-obligation, complimentary consultation. Reach out to us at 800-525-9556.
